菜籽类市场周报：美伊冲突外溢支撑，菜油期价继续上涨-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Rapeseed Oil: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed significantly higher. The closing price of the 05 contract was 9,666 yuan/ton, up 481 yuan/ton from last week. Canada's Statistics Bureau survey shows that the total intended planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 will increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres among traders. The US Department of Agriculture's Outlook Forum predicts that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in the 2025/26 season will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year-on-year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in the 2026/27 season. The intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the sharp rise in international oil prices have also boosted the oil market. Domestically, the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has been settled, and the tariff will be about 15% (5.9% + 9%) for the next five years starting from March 1st, which is expected to significantly increase the import volume of Canadian rapeseed and add supply pressure in the far - term. However, the market has already anticipated this, and the impact on the market is limited. Recently, the rapeseed oil futures price has been oscillating strongly [7]. - For Rapeseed Meal: This week, rapeseed meal futures closed with an oscillating increase. The closing price of the 05 contract was 2,374 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton from last week. There is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans, and as the Brazilian harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure will gradually increase. The market is still uncertain about the future demand for US soybeans. However, affected by the soaring crude oil price, the US soybean biofuel policy will boost the demand for soybean oil, and the strong US soybean crushing supports the US soybean market. For rapeseed meal itself, China has cancelled the anti - discrimination tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the tariff on Canadian rapeseed has also significantly decreased. Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal will flow back to the domestic market, increasing the supply pressure in the far - term. Currently, it is still the off - season for aquatic product demand, and the demand for rapeseed meal is mainly rigid. The adjustment of anti - discrimination measures on Canadian rapeseed meal and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed basically meet the previous expectations, and the market has already reacted in advance, so the overall impact is limited. This week, rapeseed meal closed with an oscillating increase, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary - Rapeseed Oil: The 05 contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,666 yuan/ton, up 481 yuan/ton from last week. The planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 is expected to increase by 1%, and the demand for US soybean oil for biofuel production is expected to grow. The Middle East conflict and rising oil prices boost the oil market. The anti - dumping tariff on Canadian rapeseed is about 15%, increasing far - term supply pressure, but the market impact is limited. The rapeseed oil futures price is oscillating strongly [7]. - Rapeseed Meal: The 05 contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2,374 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton from last week. South American soybean supply pressure is increasing, and the demand for US soybeans is uncertain. The US soybean biofuel policy boosts the soybean market. The cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the decrease in rapeseed tariffs increase far - term supply pressure. It is the off - season for aquatic product demand, and the market has already anticipated the policy changes, with limited impact. Rapeseed meal closed with an oscillating increase, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Position and Price: This week, rapeseed oil futures oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 292,389 lots, an increase of 34,445 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures oscillated and closed lower, with a total position of 854,490 lots, a decrease of 54,252 lots from last week [12]. - Top 20 Net Positions: This week, the top 20 net position of rapeseed oil futures was - 5,937, compared with - 21,539 last week, and the net short position decreased. The top 20 net position of rapeseed meal futures was - 172,981, compared with - 237,316 last week, and the net short position decreased [18]. - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 725 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 1,411 lots [24][25]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,290 yuan/ton, up from last week. The basis between the active contract of rapeseed oil futures and the spot price in Jiangsu was + 624 yuan/ton. The price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,560 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of rapeseed meal futures was + 186 yuan/ton [31][37]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was + 105 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 35 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [43]. - Futures - Spot Ratio: The ratio of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal was 4.072, and the average spot price ratio was 3.97 [46]. - Price Spreads between Different Oils and Meals: The 05 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,254 yuan/ton, and the spread slightly widened this week. The 05 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 448 yuan/ton, with little change this week. The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 541 yuan/ton, and as of Thursday, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 530 yuan/ton [56][62]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - Rapeseed - Supply: As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 201,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in February, March, and April 2026 were 120,000 tons, 165,000 tons, and 228,000 tons respectively. As of March 5th, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 422 yuan/ton. As of the 9th week of 2026, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 10,500 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from last week, and the operating rate this week was 2.55%. In December 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 55,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.79% [66][70][74]. - Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil inventory was 294,200 tons, an increase of 42,200 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 16.79%. In December 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil was 219,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.89% [82]. - Rapeseed Oil - Demand: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 525,400 tons, and the monthly retail sales of catering revenue were 573.8 billion yuan. As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the contract volume of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 59,800 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.09% [86][90]. - Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the domestic imported and crushed rapeseed meal inventory was 6,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.33%. In December 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal was 238,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.58% [94][98]. - Rapeseed Meal - Demand: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3,008,600 tons [102]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of March 6th, this week, the rapeseed meal futures price oscillated and closed higher. The implied volatility of the corresponding options was 22.24%, a rebound of 3.13% from last week's 19.11%, and it was at a relatively high level of the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [105].