豆类市场周报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Soybean No. 1, the market is expected to see price increases in the short - term due to tight supply of high - quality soybeans and improved spot market trading, but attention should be paid to downstream procurement rhythm and external market trends [5]. - For Soybean No. 2, the price increase is mainly due to the slow harvest progress in South America and the drought in some regions, which has led to a decrease in the estimated Brazilian soybean production and an increase in US soybean prices, thus boosting the domestic futures market [6]. - For soybean meal, although the domestic futures market is boosted by the situation in South America, the domestic supply pressure is still high, and the downstream buying enthusiasm is low, so the spot price is stable and weak [7]. - For soybean oil, factors such as the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the expected improvement in bio - fuel demand, and the situation in South American soybean production have led to an increase in US soybean prices, which in turn has boosted the domestic futures market. The US bio - fuel policy is also expected to increase the demand for soybean oil [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Soybean No. 1: The main 2605 contract fell 1% this week. With the end of the remaining grain at the grass - roots level, the supply of high - quality soybeans is tight. The 40 - protein soybeans are popular, while the higher - protein soybeans have a slower sales speed. After the Lantern Festival, logistics is expected to improve, and short - term prices may rise [5]. - Soybean No. 2: The main 2605 contract rose 2.88% this week. The slow harvest in South America and the drought in some regions have led to a decrease in the estimated Brazilian soybean production, and the rising US soybean prices have boosted the domestic futures market [6]. - Soybean Meal: The main 2605 contract rose 2.89% this week. The situation in South America has boosted the domestic futures market, but the domestic supply pressure remains high, and the downstream buying enthusiasm is low [7]. - Soybean Oil: The main 2605 contract rose 2.26% this week. The escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the expected improvement in bio - fuel demand, and the situation in South American soybean production have led to an increase in US soybean prices, which has boosted the domestic futures market. The US bio - fuel policy is expected to increase the demand for soybean oil [8]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - Soybean No. 1: The main 2605 contract fell 1% this week. As of March 5, the net position of the top 20 holders was - 13,800 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts of the main contract were 25,018 lots [14][39]. - Soybean Meal: The main 2605 contract rose 2.89% this week. As of March 5, the net position of the top 20 holders was - 543,263 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts of the main contract were 38,829 lots. The 05 - 09 spread was - 112 yuan/ton [19][31][46]. - Soybean Oil: The main 2605 contract rose 2.26% this week. As of March 5, the net position of the top 20 holders was - 114,381 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts of the main contract were 26,255 lots. The 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/ton [26][34][52]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - Soybean No. 1: As of March 5, the spot price of third - grade domestic soybeans in Harbin was 4,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The basis of the main contract was - 552 yuan/ton [56]. - Soybean Meal: As of March 5, the spot price in Zhangjiagang was 3,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of the main contract was 197 yuan/ton [64]. - Soybean Oil: As of March 5, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of the main contract was 280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week [70]. - Imported Soybean Premium: As of March 5, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in March was 115 cents/bushel, a decrease of 15 cents/bushel from last week; that of Argentine soybeans was 36 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel from last week; and that of Brazilian soybeans was - 10 cents/bushel, a decrease of 30 cents/bushel from last week [74]. - Imported Soybean Arrival Cost: As of March 5, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 5,209.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.01 yuan/ton from last week; that of South American soybeans was 3,719.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.7 yuan/ton from last week. The cost difference between them was 1,489.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31 yuan/ton from last week [78]. 3.4 Weather Situation - North America: Last week, about 44% (+6) of the soybean - producing areas in the US were in a drought state. Compared with last week, the area with severe drought or above (D2 +) was 20%, and the D3 + area remained unchanged. Compared with the same period last year, the D1 + area decreased by 2%, the D2 + area increased by 16%, and the D3 + area increased by 6% [81]. - Brazil: The northern part of Brazil has continuous rainfall, which is beneficial to soybean growth. The southern part is in the process of corn harvesting and seedling planting, but due to insufficient soil moisture, continuous rainfall is needed. Most of the southern regions were dry this week, but rainfall is expected to increase this weekend and spread to central Brazil [85]. 3.5 Upstream Situation - Supply - Side in the US: As of February 2026, the expected production of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month; the inventory was 951.7 million tons, unchanged from last month [89]. - Supply - Side in Brazil: As of February 2026, the expected production of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 18,000 million tons, an increase of 200 million tons from last month; the ending inventory was 3,791 million tons, an increase of 100 million tons from last month [93]. - Supply - Side in Argentina: As of February 2026, the expected production of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 4,850 million tons, unchanged from last month; the ending inventory was 2,291.9 million tons, an increase of 7.9 million tons from last month [97]. - Planting and Harvesting Progress: As of February 28, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 41.7%, an increase of 9.8% from last week. As of February 25, 2026, the soybean planting progress in Argentina reached 100%, unchanged from last week [100]. - Export Situation: US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 45% from the previous week and 24% from the same period last year. As of February 26, 2026, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 383,500 tons, lower than the previous week. The estimated soybean export volume in Brazil in February 2026 was 1,069 million tons, an increase of 9.9% from the same period last year [105][108]. 3.6 Industry Situation - Domestic Situation - Soybean Inventory: In the 9th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.9669 million tons, an increase of 771,500 tons (14.85%) from last week and an increase of 1.8129 million tons (43.64%) from the same period last year [111]. - Domestic Situation - Soybean Meal Inventory: In the 9th week of 2026, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills was 701,200 tons, a decrease of 141,300 tons (16.77%) from last week and an increase of 71,900 tons (11.43%) from the same period last year [114]. - Domestic Situation - Soybean Oil Inventory: As of February 27, 2026, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.0968 million tons, a decrease of 41,200 tons (3.62%) from last week and an increase of 7,100 tons (0.65%) from the same period last year [117]. - Domestic Situation - Oil Mill Operating Rate: In the 9th week of 2026 (from February 21 to February 27), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 588,600 tons, an increase of 551,400 tons from the previous week and 200,100 tons lower than the estimated crushing volume. The actual operating rate was 16.19% [122]. - Domestic Situation - Soybean Import: In December 2025, the total import volume of soybeans was 8.044 million tons, a decrease of 63,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 103,000 tons from the same period last year [123]. - Domestic Situation - Soybean Arrival: The estimated soybean arrival volume in March 2026 was 7.051 million tons, an increase of 1.873 million tons (36.17%) from the previous month and an increase of 1.927 million tons (37.61%) from the same period last year [128]. - Domestic Situation - Soybean Profit: As of March 5, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was 5.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton from last week. The gross profit of Brazilian soybeans on the March shipping schedule was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton from last week [131]. - Substitute Situation - Palm Oil and Rapeseed Oil Prices: As of March 5, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 9,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan/ton from last week [136]. - Substitute Situation - Price Spreads: This week, the spot price spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrowed, the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widened, the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil remained unchanged, the futures price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil and between rapeseed oil and palm oil narrowed, and the futures price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widened [139]. - Substitute Situation - Rapeseed Meal Price and Spread: As of March 5, the average price of rapeseed meal was 2,566.32 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.95 yuan/ton from last week; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 474 yuan/ton, a decrease of 79 yuan/ton from last week; the ratio of soybean meal to rapeseed meal was 1.18, a decrease of 0.03 from last week [142]. - Substitute Situation - Oil - Meal Ratio: As of March 5, 2025, the ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.94, an increase of 0.05 from last week [145]. - Transaction Situation: As of February 27, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 172,600 tons, an increase of 172,600 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 79,850 tons, an increase of 79,850 tons from last week [150]. 3.7 Downstream Situation - Downstream Situation - Pig and Piglet Prices: As of March 5, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Beijing was 10.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/kg from last week; the price of piglets was 25.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from last week [153]. - Downstream Situation - Breeding Profits: As of February 11, the pig - breeding profit was - 134.06 yuan/head, a decrease of 34.74 yuan/head from last week; as of February 13, the poultry - breeding profit was - 0.09 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/head from last week [158]. - Demand - Side - Feed Production: As of December 2025, the monthly feed production was 30.086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [161]. - Demand - Side - Sow and Pig Inventory: In February 2026, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.48%. The inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 37.3205 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a year - on - year increase of 5.57% [166].