棉花（纱）市场周报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 decreased, with a weekly decline of about 0.65%. The export signing volume of US cotton decreased, while the export shipment volume increased. In the domestic market, the port inventory increased significantly due to the large - scale arrival of cotton, increasing the supply - side pressure. As of March 5, the inventory of major ports for imported cotton was 55.65 tons, a 3.42% increase from the previous period. The downstream consumption is gradually recovering, mainly shipping previous orders, with limited new orders. The inventory of finished products has decreased, and the pressure is limited. Considering the "Golden March and Silver April" traditional consumption season, the short - term upward trend of cotton prices is expected to remain unchanged [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.65% [6]. - Market Outlook: According to the USDA report, in the week ending February 26, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 150,420 bales, a 416% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 282,200 bales, a 46% increase from the previous week and a 43% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. In the domestic market, the supply - side pressure increased, and the downstream consumption was gradually recovering. The short - term upward trend of cotton prices was expected to remain unchanged [6]. - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to the changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: As of February 24, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 103,424 contracts, an increase of 3,841 contracts from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 132,394 contracts, a decrease of 22,922 contracts from the previous week; the net short position was 28,970 contracts, a decrease of 26,763 contracts from the previous week. The price of the May contract of US cotton decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.89% [12]. - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: In the week ending February 26, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 150,420 bales, a 416% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [15]. - Futures Market: The price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.65%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2605 contract decreased by 0.19%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 189,104 contracts, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 1,377 contracts. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 11,443, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [19][25][29]. - Futures and Spot Price Difference: This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou Cotton 5 - 9 contracts was - 50 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,242 yuan/ton [36]. - Spot Market: As of March 6, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,678 yuan/ton. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 21,920 yuan/ton, the CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 15,380 yuan/ton, and the CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 24,700 yuan/ton [41][52]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of March 5, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 13,633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 268 yuan/ton from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 438 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of March 4, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,509 yuan/ton; C32S was 21,834 yuan/ton; JC32S was 23,500 yuan/ton [58]. - Imported Cotton Price Cost and Profit: As of March 5, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - duty was 2,938 yuan/ton, an increase of 158 yuan/ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 2,379 yuan/ton, an increase of 328 yuan/ton from the previous week [61]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Supply - Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory: As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a 23.51% increase from the previous month and a 1.75% increase from the same period last year. At the end of December, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of the previous month [64]. - Supply - Side - Imported Cotton Volume: In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month and a 31% increase from the same period last year. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a 59.1% decrease from the same period last year. In December 2025, China's imported cotton yarn volume was 170,000 tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month and a 20,000 - ton increase from the same period last year [68]. - Mid - end Industry - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory: As of January 31, 2026, the inventory days of yarn were 21.71 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.13 days, a 1.87% decrease from the previous period [71]. - Terminal Consumption - Textile and Garment Export Volume: In December 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 25.99 billion US dollars, a 7.4% decrease from the same period last year and an 8.9% increase from the previous month. Among them, textile exports were 12.58 billion US dollars, a 4.2% decrease from the same period last year; garment exports were 13.41 billion US dollars, a 10.2% decrease from the same period last year [75]. - Downstream Terminal Consumption - Domestic Garment Retail Sales: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, a 7.75% increase from the previous month [79]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - Options Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week is presented in the figure [80]. - Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.: The price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is presented in the figure [83].