瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This week, the overseas geopolitical situation in the natural rubber market caused the prices to first rise and then fall. The import rubber market showed a downward trend from high levels. Futures prices on the disk fluctuated, and the spot market prices of domestic natural rubber also declined. The trading atmosphere was cautious, and actual transactions were not active [7]. - The global natural rubber production areas have entered the seasonal supply off - season, and raw material prices are firm. After the Spring Festival, the arrival and storage of overseas goods decreased. Although the tire enterprise start - up rate has rebounded significantly, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may limit the increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 14,000 in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Overseas geopolitical factors in the natural rubber market led to a first - up - then - down trend. Import rubber prices declined from high levels, and the spot market of domestic natural rubber followed the futures price drop. Trading was cautious [7]. - Market Outlook: The global natural rubber production areas are in the supply off - season, with firm raw material prices. After the Spring Festival, the arrival and storage of goods decreased, but the high rubber price made downstream enterprises more risk - averse. The tire enterprise start - up rate has rebounded, but the Middle East conflict may limit capacity utilization [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 16,500 and 17,500, and the nr2605 contract between 13,400 and 14,000 in the short term [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 1.87% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber fell by 2.09% week - on - week [10]. - Position Analysis: No specific analysis content provided. - Inter - period Spread: As of March 6, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 85, and the spread between the April and May contracts of 20 - rubber was - 125 [20]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of March 6, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 117,540 tons, an increase of 3,070 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 50,399 tons, a decrease of 202 tons from last week [25]. Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of March 5, the price of state - owned full - latex was 16,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week [32]. - 20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis: As of March 5, the basis of 20 - rubber was 455 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1,035 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - Thailand Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits: As of March 6, the field glue price in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 69 (+0.7) Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 57 (+0) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - Domestic Production Area Raw Material Prices: The Yunnan and Hainan production areas in China are in the off - season [44]. Import - In December 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [50]. Inventory - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons, an increase of 1.82%. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89%. The inventory in both bonded and general trade warehouses increased, but the increase rate was significantly narrower than the previous period [53]. Downstream - Tire Start - up Rate: As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. However, the escalation of the Middle East conflict may limit the increase in capacity utilization [56]. - Tire Exports: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 251,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.79%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 3.2154 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.27%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 413,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.40%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 4.8586 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.87% [59]. - Domestic Demand (Heavy - duty Trucks): In February 2026, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February, the cumulative sales of the heavy - duty truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations. It is expected that the wholesale sales in March will achieve a slight year - on - year increase [62]. 4. Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.