建信期货农产品周度报告-20260306

1. Report Industry and Date - Industry: Agricultural products [1] - Date: March 6, 2026 [1] 2. Researchers - Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 3. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 4. Core Views 4.1 Oils - The short - term support for the oils market comes from the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, which boosts crude oil prices and strengthens the biodiesel attribute of the oils sector. The oils market is expected to follow the trend of crude oil and be viewed positively, but chasing high prices is not recommended. The strength relationship among the three major oils is expected to be palm oil > rapeseed oil > soybean oil. [8] - In the long - term, the continuous Middle - East conflict is expected to support crude oil prices in 2026, which in turn provides potential support for palm oil prices and strengthens the upward momentum of the global edible oil market. [9] 4.2 Corn - The supply of corn in the spot market may increase, but the selling pressure is reduced. The overall supply - demand pattern may still be tight, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the futures market, the 2605/07 contracts are also expected to fluctuate strongly. [97] 4.3 Hogs - The spot price of hogs may bottom - out and rebound as the low price may stimulate the demand for secondary fattening, while the 05/07 futures contracts may fluctuate weakly. [140] 4.4 Soybean Meal - Due to the macro - events and the impact of the Middle - East conflict, CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal may continue to be slightly strong. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish before the Strait is unsealed. [145][146] 4.5 Eggs - In the short - term, the spot price of eggs is expected to remain in the low - level inventory digestion stage. Based on the inflation expectation caused by the Middle - East situation, the market may start to trade the expectation of reduced replenishment enthusiasm. It is advisable to pay attention to the layout opportunities of long positions in the peak season of the second half of the year. [184] 4.6 Cotton - The cotton market is expected to adjust in the short - term, but the upward trend remains unchanged. It is necessary to wait for the performance of peak - season demand, the planting intention report, and the target price policy. [209] 4.7 Sugar - The raw sugar index is weak, and the Zhengzhou sugar index is facing pressure at the 5400 level. The spot price is weak, and the basis is expanding. [237][238][240] 5. Summary by Directory 5.1 Oils 5.1.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The three major oils show a differentiated trend. The strength relationship is expected to be palm oil > rapeseed oil > soybean oil. The short - term support comes from the Middle - East conflict. For arbitrage, go long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil. [8] - Palm oil: The inventory in Malaysia at the end of February is expected to decline. The long - term conflict in the Middle - East may support palm oil prices. [9] - Soybean oil: The rise of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil provides support for the domestic market. The domestic soybean oil is in a de - stocking cycle, but the large arrival in the second quarter may ease the supply. [9] - Rapeseed oil: After the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the policy risk is alleviated. The supply is tight, and the downside support is strong. [10] 5.1.2 Core Points - Domestic spot changes: As of March 6, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil have increased week - on - week, while the basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil has decreased. [11] - Domestic three - major oils inventory: As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils has increased week - on - week, with different trends in each oil. [21] - Domestic oils and oilseeds supply: The soybean and rapeseed oil mill opening rates have increased week - on - week but are still at a low level. The soybean processing volume has increased, and the import situation of soybeans and rapeseeds is different. [22][32] - Palm oil dynamics: The production of palm oil in Malaysia in January 2026 decreased, and different institutions have different forecasts for February. The export data shows a certain trend. [35][36] - CFTC positions: Speculative funds have continuously increased net long positions in CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal futures markets. [50] 5.2 Corn 5.2.1 Market Review - The spot price of corn has been strong this week. The futures price of the Dalian main 2605 contract has increased. [54] 5.2.2 Fundamental Analysis - Corn supply: The grain - selling progress has increased after the festival, but it is still slower than the same period last year. The port inventory shows different trends in the north and the south. [56][57] - Domestic substitutes: The wheat market is strong, and the price difference between corn and wheat exists. [59] - Imported substitute grains: The import volume of various grains in 2025 shows different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn is high, and the import volume of other grains may increase. [61][74] - Feed demand: The feed production in 2025 has increased. The pig inventory is expected to drive the feed demand, and the feed enterprise inventory has decreased. [75][79][80] - Deep - processing demand: The corn starch industry's opening rate and production have increased, but the processing profit is still in a loss state. The deep - processing enterprise inventory has decreased. [83][84][85] - Supply - demand balance sheet: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that the production of corn in the 2025/26 season will increase, and the consumption will also increase slightly. [92] 5.2.3 Later Outlook and Strategy - The spot price of corn is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the futures price of 2605/07 contracts is also expected to be strong. The strategy for spot enterprises is to replenish inventory at low prices, and for futures investors, to hold long positions. [97] 5.3 Hogs 5.3.1 Market Review - The spot price of hogs has decreased this week, and the futures price of the main LH2605 contract has also declined. [99][100] 5.3.2 Fundamental Overview - Long - term supply: The price of binary sows is expected to fluctuate. The number of sows of child - bearing age shows different trends in different data sources, and the theoretical pig slaughter volume in the future is predicted accordingly. [104][105] - Medium - term supply: The price of piglets has decreased, and the inventory of piglets shows a certain trend, which is related to the future pig slaughter volume. [114] - Short - term supply: The large - pig inventory and the situation of pressure - barring and secondary fattening are analyzed, and the short - term pig slaughter volume is predicted. [118][119] - Current supply: The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in February has decreased, and the average slaughter weight has increased slightly. [122][123] - Import supply: The pork import volume in 2025 has decreased. [130] - Secondary fattening demand: There is secondary fattening replenishment after the festival, and the cost and price difference are analyzed. [133] - Slaughter demand: The slaughter enterprise's opening rate has increased this week and is expected to adjust slightly in the future. [137] 5.3.3 Later Outlook - The spot price of hogs may bottom - out and rebound, and the 05/07 futures contracts may fluctuate weakly. The strategy for futures investors is to hold short positions and reduce positions at low prices, and for breeding enterprises, to hold hedging short positions and reduce positions with slaughter. [140] 5.4 Soybean Meal 5.4.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot price of soybean meal has been slightly strong. The futures price of CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal has increased due to the Middle - East conflict. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish before the Strait is unsealed. [144][145][146] 5.4.2 Core Points - Soybean planting: The production and inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season are analyzed. The planting area, yield, and demand of US soybeans and the production forecast of South American soybeans are provided. [147][148] - US soybean export: The US soybean export data shows a certain trend, and the future procurement situation needs attention. [153] - Domestic soybean import and crushing: The crushing profit, crushing volume, opening rate, import volume, and inventory of domestic soybeans are analyzed. [162][163][165] - Soybean meal transaction and inventory: The inventory of soybean meal has decreased, and the future demand is related to the import soybean auction. [169] - Basis and inter - month spread: The basis of soybean meal has decreased, and the 5 - 7 spread has widened slightly. [175] - Domestic registered warehouse receipts: The number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts is at the highest level in the same period in history. [181] 5.5 Eggs 5.5.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot price of eggs has been weak first and then stable. The futures price has changed little. Based on the inflation expectation, it is advisable to pay attention to the layout opportunities of long positions in the peak season of the second half of the year. [184] 5.5.2 Data Summary - Inventory and replenishment: The inventory of laying hens is at a high level in the same period, and the replenishment momentum has slowed down. The proportion of different - aged hens and egg sizes is analyzed. [185][189] - Cost, income, and breeding profit: The egg price has decreased, the feed cost is at a medium level, the chick price is at a medium level, and the breeding profit is at a very low level. [194] - Culled hens: The culling volume has increased, the culling age has been delayed, and the culled hen price is at a medium - low level in the same period. [196] - Demand, inventory, and hog price: The egg sales volume is at a low level in the same period, the inventory is relatively high, and the hog price is at a low level in the same period. [202] 5.6 Cotton 5.6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The outer - market cotton has fluctuated and declined, and the Zhengzhou cotton has adjusted. The domestic spot market is not active, and the market demand is gradually released. The short - term market is expected to adjust with a strong trend unchanged. [207][208][209] 5.6.2 Core Points - Cotton - producing countries' situation: The USDA's February supply - demand report has adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation, with changes in inventory, production, trade, and consumption. [210] - US cotton export situation: The US cotton sales and shipment data in the 2025/2026 season show different trends. [217] - Textile enterprise operation: The cotton and cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises and the load index of yarn and grey cloth are analyzed. [219] - Basis and inter - month spread: The basis has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased. [230] - CFTC positions and domestic registered warehouse receipts: The non - commercial net position of US cotton has increased, and the number of domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts has increased. [233] 5.7 Sugar 5.7.1 Data Overview - The raw sugar index is weak, and the Zhengzhou sugar index has tested the 5400 level. The spot price is weak, and the basis is expanding. The 5 - 9 spread has changed little, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased. [237][238][240][242] - The production situation in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2025/26 season is analyzed, including sugar production, ethanol production, and related ratios. The import processing profit of raw sugar has increased, and the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar has decreased. [244][245][248][249]