建信期货能源化工周报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market trading core has shifted from the fundamental aspects of polyolefins to the cost and sentiment logic driven by geopolitics. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense or further escalates, polyolefin prices will gain phased upward momentum, but the sustainability of the geopolitical risk premium is uncertain, and the market is volatile [19]. - The pulp market is expected to undergo low - level wide - range shock adjustments in the short term, as the high inventory at ports still needs to be consumed, despite the gradually increasing trading volume in the downstream market [56]. - The soda ash market is in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. Although there is short - term support from macro - sentiment improvement and energy price increases, the medium - term supply - demand imbalance will continue. In the short term, the rebound may strengthen, but in the long - term, there is downward pressure on prices [100][120]. - The glass market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". In the short term, there may be opportunities for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long - term, the improvement of real estate sales data is crucial for the upward movement of glass prices [122]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyolefins 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: In the futures market, the plastic main - continuous contract rose 16.58% from 6630 to 7691, and the polypropylene main - continuous contract rose 17.94% from 6680 to 7800. In the spot market, prices of various polyolefin products increased, with LLDPE rising 10.53% - 17.14%, LDPE rising 17.37% - 28.09%, etc. [7] - Market Outlook: Geopolitical conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz have affected polyolefins. On one hand, it impacts upstream energy costs, and on the other hand, it affects direct imports, with PE being more affected than PP. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, polyolefin prices will gain upward momentum, but due to the uncertainty of geopolitical risk premiums, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or shock - based approach [19]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - Petrochemical Maintenance Statistics: Polypropylene production decreased by 1.18 tons compared to last week, a 1.54% decline, and the average capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.16%. Polyethylene production decreased by 0.87 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.04%. The maintenance loss of polyethylene increased by 0.62 tons [21][22]. - Production Profit: Coal - based polyolefin production had positive profits, with coal - made PE having an average gross profit of 400.22 yuan/ton, an increase of 66.37 yuan/ton. Oil - made polyolefin production was in a loss state, with oil - made PE's loss expanding to - 905.18 yuan/ton. PDH - made PP's cost increased, and the profit decreased [25][26][27]. - Petrochemical Inventory Changes: After the Spring Festival in 2026, the inventory of the two major oil companies reached 940,000 tons, and as of March 6, it was 820,000 tons. The commercial inventory of polypropylene and polyethylene increased significantly after the festival, and the de - stocking inflection point may occur around mid - March [33]. - Downstream Operating Levels: The operating levels of PE and PP downstream industries generally improved. For PE, the operating rate of agricultural film increased by 17 percentage points to 45%, and for PP, the operating rate of plastic weaving products increased by 6 percentage points to 43% [39][40]. Pulp 3.1. Pulp Market Review and Outlook - Market Review: As of Thursday, the pulp 05 contract closed at 5250 yuan/ton, a 0.34% decline from last week. The average prices of imported pulp varieties mostly decreased [55]. - Market Outlook: In the short term, the pulp market will mainly undergo low - level wide - range shock adjustments due to high port inventories and limited demand [56]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - Pulp Shipment Volumes from Major Producing Countries: In December, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 14.8% month - on - month but decreased by 2.3% year - on - year; the shipment volume of broad - leaf pulp increased by 14.9% month - on - month but decreased by 0.9% year - on - year [57]. - Pulp Import Volumes: In December, China's pulp import volume was 3.11 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year decrease [65]. - Pulp Inventory Situation: As of the end of December, the inventory days of global producers' coniferous pulp increased by 1.6% month - on - month and 20.6% year - on - year; the inventory days of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 12.4% month - on - month and 4.7% year - on - year. As of the end of February, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by about [72]. - Downstream Market: The prices of downstream base paper were mostly stable, with only a slight increase in the average price of cultural paper. The market was in a wait - and - see state, and demand growth was limited [56]. Soda Ash 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: This week, the main soda ash contract (SA605) first oscillated at the bottom and then rose, with a weekly increase of 4.02%. On March 6, the position was 1.1448 million lots, with a daily increase of 30,588 lots [96]. - Operation Suggestions: In the short term, the soda ash market may have a stronger rebound. If it can stabilize above 1200 points and break through further, the upward range will be opened. In the long - term, due to weak fundamentals, there is downward pressure on prices [100][101]. 3.2. Soda Ash Market Situation - Soda Ash Supply: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of China's soda ash was 86.77% this week, a 1.73% increase. The weekly output increased to 807,000 tons, a 2.03% increase. Although some factories were under maintenance, the overall supply remained high [102]. - Soda Ash Inventory: As of March 5, the inventory of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 1.9472 million tons, a 2.79% increase. The inventory continued to rise to a historical high, but the growth rate slowed down [112]. - Soda Ash Spot: The spot price of soda ash remained stable this week, with only a slight increase in the national average price. The basis narrowed or turned negative, and the cost increase provided some support [116]. - Soda Ash Downstream: The demand for soda ash was mainly rigid, with limited recovery in downstream demand. The demand for float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak, and the recovery of light - soda downstream was slow [119]. Glass 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: This week, the main glass contract (SA605) first declined and then rose, with a 2.35% increase to 1087 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 05 positive spread widened to 212 yuan/ton [121]. - Operation Suggestions: In the short term, there may be opportunities for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long - term, the improvement of real estate sales data is crucial for the upward movement of glass prices [122]. 3.2. Glass Market Situation - Glass Supply: As of March 5, the operating rate of the float glass industry was 71.19%, a 0.92% increase. The weekly output was 1.0397 million tons, a 0.17% increase. The overall supply was at a low level, and the net change in production capacity was small [125]. - Glass Inventory: This week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 79.637 million weight boxes, a 4.77% increase, and the inventory pressure increased significantly [127]. - Glass Spot: The spot price of float glass remained stable at a low level, with small regional fluctuations. The price was restricted by high inventory and weak demand, and the downward space was limited [130]. - Glass Import and Export: In December 2025, China's float glass import volume was 14,600 tons, a 5.59% decrease, and the export volume was 87,000 tons, a 2.59% increase [136]. - Glass Upstream: The soda ash industry had high supply and high inventory, with an increase in production and a rise in inventory. The industry was in an over - supply pattern, and there was downward pressure on prices [137]. - Downstream Consumption: The operating rate of LOW - E glass sample enterprises increased by 4.7 percentage points to 29.3%. The order days of glass deep - processing enterprises decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The production and sales of the automotive industry decreased year - on - year, and the real estate industry's completion and sales areas decreased year - on - year [141][143][147].