黑色产业链日报-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The policy stimulus for the real estate industry during the Two Sessions has limited impact on the steel demand for new construction. The steel products market is under pressure, and the overall trend is oscillating weakly [3]. - The iron ore market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. High supply and low demand limit the upside potential of prices, but there is short - term support from inventory replenishment by steel mills [23]. - In the coal - coke market, from March to April, it enters the verification period of terminal demand. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening of macro - sentiment", coal - coke prices may face significant downward pressure [34]. - For ferroalloys, the price of ferromanganese is supported by news about manganese ore in the short term, but may be restricted by high inventory later. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are good, but its upside potential is limited due to the weak downstream of the black industry [49]. - In the soda ash market, supply - side maintenance may increase, which will affect production. The inventory situation is better than expected. The upside price space is limited, and the downside space depends on inventory accumulation [66]. - The glass market is in the recovery period, with weak production and sales. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the upside potential, and demand needs to be verified [89]. Summary by Directory Steel - Price Data: On March 6, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed different degrees of change compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3141 yuan/ton, up from 3132 yuan/ton on March 5 [4]. - Market Situation: The policy on real estate during the Two Sessions focuses on the revitalization of existing commercial housing and the construction of affordable housing, with limited impact on the steel demand for new construction. The inventory of hot - rolled coils is at a high level, and the fundamentals of steel products are under pressure, lacking the core driving force for price increase [3]. Iron Ore - Price Data: On March 6, 2026, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 729 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan from the previous day. The 05 contract was 772 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [24]. - Market Situation: The current core pattern is weak supply and demand. Rain in the Southern Hemisphere has slowed down the shipping rhythm, and steel mills have increased maintenance. High supply and low demand limit the upside potential of prices, but there is short - term support from inventory replenishment by steel mills [23]. Coal - Coke - Price Data: On March 6, 2026, the price difference between coking coal 09 - 01 was - 209.5, and the disk coking profit was - 18 yuan/ton [35][38]. - Market Situation: From March to April, it enters the verification period of terminal demand. The late Spring Festival this year may lead to a slow post - holiday resumption of work. Uncertain factors in the Middle East route may suppress short - term steel exports. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening of macro - sentiment", coal - coke prices may face significant downward pressure [34]. Ferroalloys - Price Data: On March 6, 2026, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 138 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 70 yuan/ton [50][51]. - Market Situation: The price of ferromanganese is supported by news about manganese ore in the short term, but may be restricted by high inventory later. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are good, but its upside potential is limited due to the weak downstream of the black industry [49]. Soda Ash - Price Data: On March 6, 2026, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1242 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.39% [67]. - Market Situation: Supply - side maintenance may increase, which will affect production. The inventory situation is better than expected. The upside price space is limited, and the downside space depends on inventory accumulation [66]. Glass - Price Data: On March 6, 2026, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1087 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 3.03% [90]. - Market Situation: The glass market is in the recovery period, with weak production and sales. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the upside potential, and demand needs to be verified [89].