有色金属周报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: The current copper market presents a game situation of "short - term high inventory and medium - term demand improvement". Short - term fundamentals are under pressure, but the medium - term demand growth prospect and macro - strategic attributes offset the downward risk. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate in the short term to gradually digest inventory pressure [6][7]. - Lithium Carbonate: In March, domestic lithium carbonate production, imports, and demand are all increasing. It is expected that the de - stocking intensity of social inventory will slow down. However, the current inventory structure shows that over 44% of social inventory is in the hands of downstream enterprises, and the low upstream inventory will limit the price decline space. Therefore, it is expected that lithium carbonate futures prices will fluctuate in the short term [22]. - Zinc: Zinc price fluctuations are more due to emotional trading in the market about the escalation of conflicts rather than its own fundamental drivers. The current geopolitical sentiment remains high, and the game around the Middle East situation continues, providing some support for zinc prices. However, the reality of high inventory and weak demand continues to suppress zinc prices. In the future, two core variables need to be concerned: the change in the duration of the US - Middle East conflict and the progress of domestic downstream resumption of work and inventory de - stocking rhythm [38][39]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper 3.1.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: This week, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (100030, 104540), with a total position of 584,000 lots, a 0.3% increase from last week. The 04 - 05 spread was - 160. Due to the decline in copper prices, downstream buying willingness increased, and the spot discount narrowed from 190 at the beginning of the week to 70. Affected by the Iranian situation, the market risk - aversion sentiment increased, the US dollar index rose, and funds chased the energy and chemical sectors, causing copper prices to rise and then fall. LME copper operated in the range of (12722, 13433). Overseas funds' enthusiasm for going long has decreased recently [7]. - Operation Suggestions: On the supply side, the TC of copper concentrate imports continues to decline, and the processing fee in the scrap copper market has declined. Although the raw material pressure has increased, it will take time for the raw material shortage to be transmitted to the smelting end. In March, the output is expected to exceed 1.2 million tons, and the pressure of concentrated maintenance of smelters may appear from April. At the same time, the import arbitrage window for the far - month contract on the disk is open, and subsequent imports are expected to increase. On the demand side, the peak season is coming, and the operating rates of refined copper rods, wires and cables, and enameled wires have all increased significantly. However, the current domestic and foreign inventories are at a high level, and it is necessary to wait for the de - stocking intensity in the domestic peak season to verify the peak - season performance. In the medium term, the application prospects of copper in the power grid and AI fields are optimistic, and demand growth is expected. Macroscopically, the market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in March, and the US dollar index will mainly fluctuate. Geopolitical risks and the signal of state reserves strengthen the strategic resource attribute of copper, providing bottom support for prices. Overall, it is expected that copper prices will fluctuate in the short term to gradually digest inventory pressure [7]. 3.1.2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side: The inversion of copper ore processing fees has intensified. As of March 6, the weekly TC of imported ore decreased by 5.62 to - 56.05 US dollars/ton, and the pricing coefficient of domestic copper concentrate remained at 96.5%. The long - term TC in 2026 is 0 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 21.25 US dollars/ton compared with 2025. The inventory of copper concentrate at seven ports increased by 2.15 to 632,700 tons. The processing fees of crude copper in the south and north decreased by 100 yuan/ton respectively, and the import processing fee of crude copper remained unchanged at 95 US dollars/ton. The anode plate processing fee remained unchanged at 1450 yuan/ton. The total imported metal volume of scrap copper and anode plates in December increased by 12.3% month - on - month and decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. The refined - scrap spread continued to weaken, and the processing fee of domestic scrap copper decreased. The by - product sulfuric acid revenue fluctuated at a high level. In February, the output of electrolytic copper was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% month - on - month and an increase of 7.96% year - on - year. It is expected that the output in March will increase by 4.62% month - on - month. The import window of refined copper is closed [10][11][12]. - Demand Side: The weekly operating rate of scrap copper rods increased by 3.42 percentage points to 5.57%. The refined - scrap spread and the spread between refined and scrap copper rods decreased, and the substitution effect of scrap copper weakened. The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods increased by 44.09% to 62.47%, and it is expected to further increase to 70.46% next week. The operating rate of wires and cables increased by 33.17 percentage points to 60.9%, and it is expected to further increase to 66.1% next week. The operating rate of enameled wires increased by 31.14 percentage points to 81.07%, and new orders increased significantly at the beginning of the week but decreased at the end of the week [13][14][15]. - Spot Side: Domestic inventory increased by 44,900 tons to 644,200 tons, and it is expected to decrease next week. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 600 tons to 67,000 tons. The inventory in the LME + COMEX market increased by 26,795 tons to 826,000 tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate 3.2.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: This week, the futures price of lithium carbonate continued to decline weakly. The main contract operated in the range of (146060, 179500), and the total position decreased by 11.7% to 628,000 lots. The near - month spread structure remained in CONTANGO. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate also declined, and the spot holders' reluctance to sell increased after the sharp decline in the futures price [21]. - Operation Suggestions: On the supply side, the weekly output continued to rise, and it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate output in March will increase by 28% to 106,390 tons. The amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China in February increased by 32% to 22,381 tons, and the domestic supply in March is expected to exceed 130,000 tons, putting pressure on short - term lithium prices. On the demand side, the peak season is coming. The output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased by 5.8% and 8.4% respectively this week, and it is expected to increase by 19.3% and 23.6% respectively in March. The demand for new energy vehicles is expected to pick up in March. In the energy storage field, although the Iranian situation affects the Middle East energy storage installation in 2026, the Chinese energy storage market is in a period of rapid development, and the domestic energy storage demand growth is expected to offset the decline in Middle East demand. Overall, in March, domestic lithium carbonate production, imports, and demand are all increasing, and it is expected that the de - stocking intensity of social inventory will slow down. It is expected that lithium carbonate futures prices will fluctuate in the short term [22]. 3.2.2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side: This week, lithium ore prices fell. The spot price of Australian ore (6%, CIF China) decreased by 7.8% to 2200 US dollars/ton, the price of high - grade phospho - lithium - aluminum stone ore decreased by 8.8% to 14,000 yuan/ton, and the price of high - grade lithium mica concentrate decreased by 7.3% to 5190 yuan/ton. The production profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate turned into a loss. The weekly output of lithium carbonate in China was 22,590 tons, an increase of 768 tons from last week. It is expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in March will increase to 106,390 tons, and the output of lithium hydroxide will increase to 30,050 tons. The cash cost of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and high - grade lithium mica concentrate decreased [26]. - Demand Side: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and cobalt acid lithium all decreased. The production enthusiasm of iron lithium enterprises was high, and the demand in the power and energy storage fields rebounded in March. The price center of battery cells moved up slightly, and the production cost of some battery cells decreased [27][28][29]. - Spot Side: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was at a low level, and the spread between spot and the main contract fluctuated sharply. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 720 tons to 99,373 tons, with the inventory of smelters decreasing, the downstream inventory increasing, and the trader inventory decreasing [31]. Zinc 3.3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The macro - situation is affected by the US - Iran conflict and the opening of the domestic two sessions. The US dollar index rebounded strongly, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The zinc price was mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the sector, with high inventory and weak demand suppressing the price, but the supply disturbance expectation of Iranian zinc ore limited the downward space [36]. - Operation Suggestions: On the supply side, northern mines are gradually resuming production, and the domestic supply of zinc concentrate is expected to increase. The average domestic TC of SMM Zn50 increased by 50 to 1550 yuan/metal ton. The output of refined zinc in March is expected to increase month - on - month. On the demand side, the downstream resumption of work is uneven, and the demand for zinc in the real estate industry chain is weak. The social inventory accumulation pressure continues, and the de - stocking inflection point may come around mid - March. In the future, two core variables need to be concerned: the change in the duration of the US - Middle East conflict and the progress of domestic downstream resumption of work and inventory de - stocking rhythm [38][39]. 3.3.2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side: The game between mines and smelters intensifies, and the increase in processing fees is limited. The domestic supply of zinc concentrate is expected to increase in March, and the average domestic TC of SMM Zn50 increased by 50 to 1550 yuan/metal ton. The economy of imported zinc concentrate has decreased, and the smelter's purchasing willingness is low. The output of zinc ingots in March is expected to increase month - on - month [46][47][48]. - Demand Side: The operating rate of galvanizing increased by 32.22% to 39.,06%, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy increased by 23.73% to 32.46%, and the operating rate of zinc oxide increased by 24.46% to 44.22%. The raw material inventory of each industry increased slightly, and the finished product inventory decreased [49][50]. - Spot Market: The domestic inventory increased by 1700 tons to 256,300 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased to 95,000 tons, with the Cash - 3M contango narrowing to around 20 US dollars/ton [51].