三大油脂周度报告-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils showed a resonant upward trend compared to last week. As of the close, palm oil rose 4.99%, soybean oil rose 2.26%, and rapeseed oil rose 5.24%. In the short - term, palm oil may see a decline in inventory in February and its trend is relatively strong; rapeseed oil has an expected increase in far - month supply but its planting intention is lower than expected, so it fluctuates strongly; soybean oil fluctuates as the US biodiesel policy is about to be clarified and domestic inventory is high. In the long - term, palm oil futures prices are expected to be strong due to plantation confiscation and increased drought risk in Indonesia; rapeseed oil futures prices may weaken in the long - term as the supply will increase; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil has recovered, and considering the cost and consumption performance of soybean oil, its cost center may rise [73]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Prices of Three Major Oils in China - From February 27 to March 6, 2026, the closing price of the palm oil futures main contract (P2605) increased from 8,780 to 9,218, a weekly increase of 438 or 4.99%. The spot price rose from 8,666 to 8,960, a weekly increase of 294 or 3.39% [4]. - The closing price of the rapeseed oil futures main contract (OI2605) increased from 9,185 to 9,666, a weekly increase of 481 or 5.24%. The spot price rose from 9,780 to 9,884, a weekly increase of 104 or 1.06% [4]. - The closing price of the soybean oil futures main contract (Y2605) increased from 8,226 to 8,412, a weekly increase of 186 or 2.26%. The spot price rose from 8,520 to 8,600, a weekly increase of 80 or 0.94% [4]. 2. Basis and Spread of Three Major Oils - As of March 5, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were 230 yuan/ton (a decrease of 64 yuan/ton from the previous week), 541 yuan/ton (a decrease of 158 yuan/ton from the previous week), and - 110 yuan/ton (an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [8]. - As of March 6, 2026, the YP spread was - 806 yuan/ton (a decrease of 252 yuan/ton from the previous week) [8]. 3. Inventory Trends of Three Major Oils - As of February 27, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 1.0 million tons (an increase of 0.50 million tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 78.67 million tons (an increase of 8.03 million tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 119.68 million tons (a decrease of 4.12 million tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 189.35 million tons (an increase of 4.41 million tons from the previous week) [13]. 4. Supply Side of Palm Oil - As of March 3, 2026, the total port inventory of palm oil was 81.30 million tons (an increase of 6.9 million tons from the previous week) [19]. - SPPOMA data showed that the palm oil production in Malaysia in February 2026 decreased by 16% month - on - month [19]. 5. Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of February 27, 2026, the soybean inventory in national ports was 630.00 million tons (an increase of 70.60 million tons from the previous week), and the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 596.69 million tons (an increase of 77.15 million tons from the previous week) [34]. - As of March 5, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 506.20 yuan/ton (a decrease of 49.15 yuan/ton from the previous week) [34]. 6. Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of February 27, 2026, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons (an increase of 12.5 million tons from the previous week) [50]. - As of March 6, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was 112 yuan/ton (an increase of 2,738.80 yuan/ton from the previous week) [50]. 7. Demand Side - On March 5, 2026, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 500 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 18,800 tons, and the POGO spread was 83.74 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 274.75 US dollars/ton from the previous week) [67]. - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 million tons [68]. 8. Fundamental Analysis of Three Major Oils - Policy: The Trump administration plans to re - allocate at least 50% of the exempted biofuel blending obligations to large refineries, and the US biodiesel policy will gradually become clear [72]. - Abroad: There are strong expectations of a bumper soybean harvest in South American Brazil, but the overall harvesting progress is slower than in previous years. Drought in Brazil and Argentina may lead some institutions to lower Brazil's soybean production. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in February may decline for the second consecutive month, and its February production is expected to decrease by 17.8% [72]. - Import and crushing: The soybean inventory in national ports has increased to 630 million tons, and the rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 20 million tons, an increase of 12.5 million tons from the previous week [72]. - Inventory: As of February 27, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas increased to 1.0 million tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 78.67 million tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills decreased to 119.68 million tons [72]. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed a resonant upward trend. The spot price of palm oil increased by 3.39% from the previous week, rapeseed oil by 1.06%, and soybean oil by 0.94% [72].