有色新能源周度报告-20260306

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the price trends of major domestic metal spot and futures markets, the inventory situation of copper, the processing fees of copper concentrates, and the demand - side situation of non - ferrous metals. It also gives short - term and medium - long - term outlooks and risk points for key varieties such as lithium carbonate and tin [4][19][34][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures主力合约CU2604 fell from 103920 to 101050, a weekly decline of 2.76%. The average price of 1 copper in Shanghai spot dropped from 102140 to 101610, a weekly decline of 0.52% [4] - Aluminum: The futures主力合约AL2605 rose from 23925 to 24785, a weekly increase of 3.59%. The average price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai spot rose from 23400 to 25110, a weekly increase of 7.31% [4] - Zinc: The futures主力合约ZN2604 fell from 24710 to 24260, a weekly decline of 1.82%. The average price of 0 zinc in Shanghai spot rose from 24470 to 24730, a weekly increase of 1.06% [4] - Lead: The futures主力合约PB2604 fell from 16840 to 16775, a weekly decline of 0.39%. The average price of 1 lead ingot rose from 16575 to 16600, a weekly increase of 0.15% [4] - Nickel: The futures主力合约NI2605 fell from 141560 to 137140, a weekly decline of 3.12%. The average price of 1 electrolytic nickel fell from 142650 to 140500, a weekly decline of 1.51% [4] - Alumina: The futures主力合约AO2605 rose from 2744 to 2832, a weekly increase of 3.21%. The alumina price in Foshan spot rose from 2670 to 2680, a weekly increase of 0.37% [4] - Industrial Silicon: The futures主力合约SI2605 rose from 8395 to 8690, a weekly increase of 3.51%. The average price of 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9400 [4] - Lithium Carbonate: The futures主力合约LC2605 fell from 176040 to 156160, a weekly decline of 11.29%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate fell from 174100 to 154800, a weekly decline of 11.09% [4] - Polysilicon: The futures主力合约PS2605 fell from 46495 to 41115, a weekly decline of 11.57%. The price of N - type polysilicon material fell from 52000 to 49000, a weekly decline of 5.77% [4] - Tin: The futures主力合约SN2604 fell from 453240 to 393660, a weekly decline of 13.15%. The average price of 1 tin in Shanghai spot fell from 430250 to 397050, a weekly decline of 7.72% [4] 3.2 Copper Inventory Trends in Major Exchanges - LME copper inventory rose from 25.36 million tons to 28.22 million tons, a weekly increase of 11.28% [19] - COMEX copper inventory fell from 60.1 million tons to 59.97 million tons, a weekly decline of 0.22% [19] - SHEF copper inventory rose from 39.15 million tons to 42.51 million tons, a weekly increase of 8.58% [19] 3.3 Copper Concentrate Processing Fees - As of March 5, 2026, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 56 US dollars/ton, with a slight weekly decline, remaining at a historical extreme negative value. The spot RC was - 5.6 cents/pound, and the expectation of tight supply at the mine end still existed [23] 3.4 Lithium Spodumene Concentrate Index - As of March 6, 2026, the latest quote was 2155 US dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 217 US dollars/ton [25] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals Demand Side - In January 2026, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. Production increased slightly by 0.01% year - on - year, while sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Compared with the previous month, they decreased by 25.7% and 28.3% respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.041 million and 0.945 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 2.5% and 0.1% respectively [29] - In 2025, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The floor area of new housing starts was 587.7 million square meters, a decrease of 20.4%. The floor area of housing completion was 603.48 million square meters, a decrease of 18.1% [31] - By the end of 2025, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.2 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%, leading in growth rate; the installed capacity of wind power was 0.64 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.9% [33] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate Market Analysis - Short - term: There is obvious double - top suppression, and short - term attention should be paid to the support at the 150,000 - yuan mark [34] - Medium - long - term: Focus on the actual realization of demand [35] 3.7 Tin Market Analysis - Short - term: Pay attention to the competition at the 400,000 - yuan mark [38] - Medium - long - term: Closely monitor the actual purchasing power of downstream demand and the latest policy guidance [40]