股指、黄金周度报告-20260306

Report Title - The report is titled "Stock Index and Gold Weekly Report" [1] Report Date - The report is dated March 6, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, domestic policy利好 expectations are rising, but geopolitical risks remain, so the stock index may fluctuate in the short - term and investors should wait for stabilization signals; Fed officials' hawkish remarks have dampened market expectations of interest rate cuts, the US dollar index is strong, and gold is under short - term pressure and in a high - level consolidation pattern [38] - In the medium - to long - term, the stock index's valuation will be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth on the numerator side, and the support on the denominator side mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite. It is expected to maintain a wide - range consolidation; the US tax - cut policy will gradually show its stimulating effect on the economy, the Fed's room for further interest rate cuts is narrowing, and gold may face a deep adjustment when geopolitical tensions ease [38] Summary by Directory Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data - In February 2026, China's official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, hitting a new low since November last year. The production index was 49.6, 1 percentage point slower than the previous month; the new order index dropped from 49.2 to 48.6, hitting a new low since July 2023, and the new export order index dropped to 45, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month [6] - In February, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 51.6, 0.8 percentage points slower than the previous month, and the ISM manufacturing PMI dropped from 52.6 to 52.4, remaining in the expansion range for two consecutive months, indicating that the US manufacturing activity has recovered and the labor market is gradually recovering [23] Stock Index Fundamental Data - Due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises face great operating pressure, cannot transfer production costs to consumers, have long - term phenomenon of increasing revenue but not profit, and have to reduce production and inventory [13][14] - The margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined slightly to 2617.108 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 161.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 1363.4 billion yuan [17] Gold Fundamental Data - The growth of Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory has slowed down, and the New York COMEX gold inventory has decreased significantly, indicating a relief of delivery pressure [35] Strategy Recommendation - The decline of China's manufacturing PMI in February was mainly affected by factors such as the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, economic activities will gradually return to normal. The government work report requires more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a fiscal deficit ratio of about 4% this year, and plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan of local special bonds [38] - In the short - term, the stock index may fluctuate due to geopolitical risks, and gold is under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish remarks; in the medium - to long - term, the stock index will be in a wide - range consolidation, and gold may face a deep adjustment [38] - Next week's key points and risk warnings include important data such as China's February CPI/PPI, the US February CPI, and January core PCE price index [38]