铝产业链数据周度报告-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: For caustic soda, it is expected to be strongly volatile; for alumina, it is expected to be in low - level oscillation, and for electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are expected to be strongly volatile [23][24][26] - Medium - to - long - term: For caustic soda, pay attention to the demand increase brought by the commissioning of new alumina production capacity and the recovery of downstream operation, and consider going long on dips if the operation is smooth; for electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are expected to be strongly volatile under the quantitative easing environment, and alumina will be in wide - range low - level oscillation without large - scale production cuts [24][27] 2. Core View - The current strong performance of caustic soda futures is due to reduced exports from the Middle East, upcoming traditional demand season, new alumina production capacity, and approaching maintenance season. Alumina has an obvious supply surplus, and its price is under pressure. Electrolytic aluminum's supply is affected by the Middle East situation, and demand is picking up [23][26] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Aluminum Industry Chain Related Variety Price and Basis Trends - The report presents the trends of domestic alumina, cast aluminum alloy, caustic soda, and aluminum spot and futures prices and their basis [5][6] 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - As of March 6, the weekly operating rate of caustic soda enterprises was 86.4%, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, and the weekly output was 855,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase. The weekly inventory was 55,000 tons, a 9,100 - ton increase [9] 3.3 Aluminum Raw Material Supply - As of February 27, the bauxite port inventory was 26.1449 million tons, 602,300 tons more than before the holiday. As of the end of January, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 24.54 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 2.54 - million - ton increase year - on - year [12] 3.4 Alumina Supply - As of March 6, the weekly operating rate of alumina enterprises was 82.62%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and the weekly output was 1.783 million tons, a 2,000 - ton decrease. The total inventory was 5.722 million tons, a 37,000 - ton increase from the previous week [15] 3.5 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - As of the end of January, China's primary aluminum production was 3.786 million metric tons. As of the end of February, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.94%. As of the end of December last year, the inventory was 644,000 tons [18] 3.6 Major Three - Exchange Aluminum Inventory Trends - As of March 5, the LME aluminum inventory was 459,100 tons, a decrease of 8,425 tons from last Friday; the SHFE aluminum inventory was 356,000 tons, an increase of 58,600 tons from last Friday; the COMEX aluminum inventory was 4,401 metric tons, a decrease of 1,043 metric tons from last week. Overall, the global major three - exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to accumulate this week [21][22] 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - Caustic soda: In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the demand increase brought by the commissioning of new alumina production capacity and the recovery of downstream operation, and consider going long on dips if the operation is smooth [23][24] - Alumina, SHFE aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy: In the short - term, alumina is in low - level oscillation, and SHFE aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are strongly volatile. In the medium - to - long - term, SHFE aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are expected to be strongly volatile under the quantitative easing environment, and alumina will be in wide - range low - level oscillation without large - scale production cuts [26][27]