合成橡胶市场周报-20260306

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 15,000 in the short - term [7] - The cost support for butadiene rubber remains strong due to the impact of the Middle East geopolitical situation on crude oil and shipping, and the continuous strong performance of the domestic butadiene segment. With high capacity utilization, increasing downstream demand, and upcoming plant maintenance, spot - end inventory is expected to decline significantly. However, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may limit the increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: The br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 13,500 - 15,000 range [7] - Market Review: The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market soared this week, with spot prices ranging from 12,100 - 14,100 yuan/ton [8] - Market Outlook: The cost support is strong. With high capacity utilization, downstream demand is increasing. After the Spring Festival, downstream procurement demand has gradually picked up, and the negotiation focus has risen. With some plant maintenance in late March, spot - end inventory is expected to decline. However, the Middle East conflict may limit the increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization [8] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 15.71% [12] - Position Analysis: Not detailed in a summarized form in the content - Inter - month Spread: As of March 6, the 4 - 5 spread of butadiene rubber was 105 [18] - Warehouse Receipts: As of March 6, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 18,930 tons, an increase of 390 tons from last week [21] 3.2.2. Spot Market - Price: As of March 5, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton from last week [27] - Basis: As of March 5, the butadiene rubber basis was - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week [27] 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of March 5, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 774.38 US dollars/ton, an increase of 137.75 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 850 US dollars/ton, an increase of 140 US dollars/ton from last week [30] - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory: As of March 6, the butadiene weekly capacity utilization rate was 76.28%, an increase of 0.99% from last week, and the port inventory was 39,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons from last week [33] 3.3.2. Butadiene Rubber Industry - Production and Capacity Utilization: In February 2026, butadiene rubber production was 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36% and a year - on - year increase of 25.64%. As of March 5, the domestic butadiene rubber weekly capacity utilization rate was 81.62%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week [36] - Production Profit: As of March 5, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 1,424 yuan/ton, a decrease of 965 yuan/ton from last week [39] - Inventory: As of March 6, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 43,420 tons, a decrease of 10,050 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 34,400 tons, a decrease of 10,750 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 9,020 tons, an increase of 700 tons from last week [43] 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. The Middle East conflict may limit the increase in capacity utilization [46] - Tire Exports: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January - December 2025, the cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [49]