贵金属市场周报：美元延续反弹态势，金价上行阻力仍存-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the precious metals market faced pressure and pulled back. The Shanghai Gold main contract 2604 fell 0.62% to 1140.80 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver main contract 2606 fell 5.56% to 21740 yuan/kilogram. The recent strong performance of the US dollar has suppressed the attractiveness of non - interest - bearing assets. The market's expectation of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve has also put pressure on the precious metals market. The escalating situation between the US and Iran has kept market risk - aversion high. The US labor market shows stronger - than - expected resilience, and rising global energy prices have reignited inflation concerns. The expected hawkish policy has led to a decline in the probability of two interest rate cuts this year to 50%. In the short term, tightened market liquidity may increase the selling pressure on the precious metals market, but such impacts are usually short - lived. If the US - Iran tension continues to escalate, it may stimulate the upward momentum of gold. In the long - term, the structural logic of deepening global geopolitical rifts and weakening US dollar credibility remains unchanged, and gold's appeal as a preferred hedging asset still exists. It is recommended to buy on dips and control risks [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Points Summary - The precious metals market was under pressure this week. The Shanghai Gold main 2604 contract fell 0.62% and the Shanghai Silver main 2606 contract fell 5.56%. The strong US dollar, hawkish Fed expectations, the tense US - Iran situation, and strong US labor market data all affected the market. It is expected that short - term liquidity tightening may increase selling pressure, but the long - term attractiveness of gold as a hedge remains. It is advisable to buy on dips [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Affected by the strong US dollar, weakening interest rate cut expectations, and profit - taking, the precious metals market declined. The Shanghai Gold main 2604 contract was at 1140.60 yuan/gram with a 0.62% weekly decline, and the Shanghai Silver main 2606 contract was at 21740 yuan/kilogram with a 5.56% weekly decline. Gold and silver ETFs had a small net outflow. COMEX gold and silver net positions decreased, with silver's net position dropping by 7.26%. The basis of Shanghai Gold weakened week - on - week, while that of Shanghai Silver strengthened. The internal - external price difference of gold widened, and that of silver narrowed. COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory had a large outflow. The gold - silver ratio rebounded [7][12][13]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry Situation - As of December 2025, China's silver and silver ore imports increased significantly, with silver imports up 27.03% and silver ore and concentrate imports up 32.29%. Due to the growing demand for silver in semiconductors, the production of integrated circuits continued to rise, with a 12.9% year - on - year growth in December 2025 [36][38][40]. 3.3.2 Gold Supply and Demand Situation - In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with a total value of $555 billion. Investment demand increased to 2175 tons, and the net position of gold ETFs increased by 801 tons, providing strong support for gold prices [44][46]. 3.3.3 Silver Supply and Demand Situation - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply and demand was due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand declined slightly, and the market shortage narrowed significantly. It is predicted that global silver supply will increase by 3% to about 1050 million ounces, demand will decrease by 4% to about 1120 million ounces, and the supply - demand gap will narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a 53% reduction [47][49]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options 3.4.1 Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields strengthened simultaneously. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread continued to narrow, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the ratio of the S&P 500 to the London gold price rose. Emerging economies' central banks continued to buy gold, providing long - term structural support for gold prices [50][54][58].