建信期货黑色金属周报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodity futures are expected to turn from weak to strong after early March. Although the 4 - year - and - 10 - month decline cycle may be approaching an end, the subsequent rebound path remains unclear. Investors or operators should prepare for long - term market fluctuations [9][38]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to rise due to the combined effects of cost and demand. The high international energy prices and the expected resumption of production by downstream steel mills will support the prices [10][56]. - The iron ore price is expected to turn from weak to strong. Although the supply is relatively tight in the first quarter and the demand faces some policy pressure during the Two Sessions, the overall resumption of production is expected to accelerate. However, the high port inventory and the expected increase in annual supply will limit the upside space of the iron ore price [12][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black Variety Strategy Recommendations | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Single - side Strategy | RB2605 | 3088 | Oscillating and Bullish | Five major steel products' weekly output returns to a low level, weekly demand recovers to the pre - Spring Festival level, and the low steel output will conflict with the warming spring demand [6]. | | | HC2605 | 3230 | Oscillating and Bullish | The second round of spot price increase of coke was partially implemented on March 6, steel mills' coke inventory decreased significantly, port and coking enterprise coke inventory increased, the tense situation in the Middle East led to a significant increase in international energy prices, and the coking coal and coke market was strengthened by the uncertainty of international energy supply [6]. | | | J2605 | 1695.5 | Oscillating and Bullish | The tense situation in the Middle East led to a significant increase in international energy prices, and the coking coal and coke market was strengthened by the uncertainty of international energy supply. The steel mills' and coking plants' coking coal inventory decreased significantly in the past two weeks [6]. | | | JM2605 | 1123 | Oscillating and Bullish | Similar to J2605, the tense situation in the Middle East and the significant decline in coking coal inventory of steel mills and coking plants [6]. | | Inter - period Arbitrage | I2605 | 772 | Turning from Weak to Strong | The shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil decreased, the output of five major steel products increased slightly, demand improved, the daily average pig iron output decreased and may rebound after the Two Sessions, steel mills' inventory decreased naturally, and port inventory remained at a high level [6]. | 3.2 Steel 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price: On March 6, the prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market mostly declined or slightly increased. The price of 20mm grade - 3 rebar in the main market decreased by 20 yuan/ton to increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in the main market decreased by 10 yuan/ton to increased by 10 yuan/ton [13]. - Blast Furnace and Crude Steel Production: On March 6, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide decreased significantly (down 2.13 percentage points to 85.32%). The average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises in mid - February increased for two consecutive ten - day periods and reached a new high since mid - October last year (up 8.34 tons or 4.29% to 202.95 tons compared with early February) [13]. - Pig Iron Production and Electric Furnace Production: On March 6, the national daily average pig iron output decreased significantly and gave back the increase since late January (down 5.69 tons or 2.44% to 227.59 tons). The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased significantly from the lowest level since mid - February last year (up 13.36 percentage points to 20.71%) [17]. - Output and Inventory of Five Major Steel Products: On March 6, the weekly output of rebar of major steel mills nationwide increased from the lowest level since early September 2024 (up 8.21 tons or 4.97% to 173.31 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil of major steel mills decreased for two consecutive weeks from the highest level since mid - December last year (down 8.50 tons or 2.75% to 301.11 tons). The rebar inventory of major steel mills increased for seven consecutive weeks and reached a new high since late February last year (up 5.09 tons or 2.19% to 237.93 tons), and the hot - rolled coil inventory of major steel mills decreased from the highest level since mid - February last year (down 4.70 tons or 4.96% to 90.08 tons) [18]. - Social Inventory: On March 6, the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities increased for nine consecutive weeks from the lowest level since early January last year and reached a new high since mid - May 2024 (up 69.99 tons or 12.33% to 637.75 tons). The social inventory of hot - rolled coil in 33 cities increased for five consecutive weeks from the lowest level since late August last year and reached a new high since mid - April 2020 (up 24.24 tons or 6.78% to 381.61 tons) [22]. - Downstream Demand: From January to December last year, the national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year (the decline increased by 1.3 percentage points compared with January to November last year). The national automobile production increased by 9.8% year - on - year (the increase narrowed by 1.0 percentage point compared with January to November last year). The national metal - cutting machine tool production increased by 9.7% year - on - year (the increase narrowed by 3.0 percentage points compared with January to November last year). The production of air conditioners, household refrigerators, and household washing machines increased by 0.7%, 1.6%, and 4.8% respectively year - on - year (decreased by 0.9, increased by 0.4, and decreased by 1.5 percentage points respectively compared with January to November last year) [22]. - Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit: On March 6, the apparent consumption of rebar increased significantly from the lowest level since late February 2024 (up 64.68 tons or 192.79% to 98.23 tons), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil rebounded (up 13.20 tons or 4.92% to 281.57 tons). The disk profit of the rebar 2605 contract showed a significant increase in the loss (down 43.4 yuan/ton to - 295.0 yuan/ton) [28]. - Spot Rebar Gross Profit per Ton: On March 6, the gross profit per ton of long - process steel mills' rebar calculated by the main spot prices showed an increase in the loss for two consecutive weeks (down 32.4 yuan/ton to - 90.8 yuan/ton), and the gross profit per ton of short - process steel mills' rebar (at normal electricity price) increased in the loss for two consecutive weeks (down 10.0 yuan/ton to - 104.4 yuan/ton) [33]. 3.2.2 Conclusions and Suggestions - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: After early March, the black - series commodity futures are expected to turn from weak to strong. Although the 4 - year - and - 10 - month decline cycle may be approaching an end, the subsequent rebound path remains unclear, and investors or operators should prepare for long - term market fluctuations [35][38]. - Basis between Futures and Spot: On March 6, the basis of rebar narrowed for two consecutive weeks, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70 - 140 yuan/ton in the future. The basis of hot - rolled coil also narrowed for two consecutive weeks, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of - 30 - 30 yuan/ton in the future [39][41]. 3.3 Coke and Coking Coal 3.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price: On March 6, the prices of major coke in the spot market were basically stable, and the prices of major coking coal in some markets decreased. The price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in the main market remained unchanged, and the aggregated price of some main coking coal markets decreased by 40 yuan/ton to remained unchanged [43]. - Weekly Output and Capacity Utilization: On March 6, the daily average coke output of 230 independent coking plants nationwide decreased from the highest level since mid - December last year (down 0.38 tons or 0.75% to 50.39 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants decreased from the highest level since late October last year (down 0.54 percentage points to 72.29%). The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises decreased for two consecutive weeks (down 0.10 tons or 0.21% to 47.00 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased for two consecutive weeks (down 0.20 percentage points to 85.89%) [43]. - Inventory and Coking Plant Profit: On March 6, the coke inventory at ports increased after two consecutive weeks of decline (up 6.01 tons or 3.05% to 203.11 tons). The coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased for three consecutive weeks from the highest level since early February last year (down 3.85 tons or 0.57% to 671.26 tons). The coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a new high since early July last year (up 1.01 tons or 1.62% to 63.20 tons). The average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises turned from loss to profit after nine consecutive weeks of loss (up 24 yuan to 17 yuan) [47]. - Output, Operating Rate, and Inventory of Sample Mines: On March 6, the daily average clean coal output of 523 sample mines increased significantly for two consecutive weeks from the lowest level since January 2021 (up 9.88 tons or 15.22% to 74.78 tons), and the operating rate of 523 sample mines increased significantly for two consecutive weeks from the lowest level since January 2021 (up 14.08 percentage points to 82.32%). The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased for two consecutive weeks and reached a new high since mid - January (up 28.60 tons or 11.10% to 286.26 tons), and the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased significantly (up 15.70 tons or 2.92% to 552.89 tons) [48]. - Monthly Import and Weekly Inventory of Coking Coal: From January to December last year, China's coking coal imports were 1.1863 billion tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.66% in absolute value, and the decline narrowed by 3.01 percentage points compared with January to November last year). On March 6, the coking coal inventory at ports decreased (down 4.27 tons or 1.57% to 267.70 tons). The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants decreased significantly for three consecutive weeks and reached a new low since mid - September last year (down 33.31 tons or 4.02% to 796.15 tons). The coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased significantly for three consecutive weeks and reached a new low since late June last year (down 16.82 tons or 2.12% to 775.64 tons) [52]. - Monthly Output of Raw Coal and Coke: From January to December last year, China's raw coal output was 4.832 billion tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.53% in absolute value, and the increase narrowed by 0.31 percentage point compared with January to November last year). China's coke output was 504 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.03% in absolute value, and the increase narrowed by 0.16 percentage point compared with January to November last year) [52]. 3.3.2 Conclusions and Suggestions The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to rise due to the combined effects of cost and demand. The high international energy prices and the expected resumption of production by downstream steel mills will support the prices [56]. 3.4 Iron Ore 3.4.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price and Spread: As of March 5, the 62% Platts iron ore index rebounded for two consecutive weeks (up 1.6 dollars/ton or 1.60% to 101.35 dollars/ton). As of March 6, the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port rebounded slightly (up 14 yuan/ton or 1.87% to 763 yuan/ton). Among high - grade ores, the spread between 65% Carajas fines and PB fines remained unchanged at 131 yuan/ton, and the spread between 62.5% PB lumps and PB fines widened (up 3 yuan/ton to 113 yuan/ton). Among low - grade ores, the spread between 60.5% Jinbuba fines and PB fines remained unchanged at - 48 yuan/ton, and the spread between 56.5% Super Special fines and PB fines widened (down 3 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton) [57]. - Inventory and Port Clearance Volume: On March 6, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to increase, up 25.90 tons to 17117.86 tons. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports rebounded (up 12.60 tons to 311.08 tons). The available days of imported ore inventory of steel mills remained unchanged at 23 days. The sintered powder ore inventory of imported ore of 64 sample steel mills decreased (down 54.14 tons or 3.96% to 1314.02 tons), and the sintered powder ore inventory of domestic ore of 64 sample steel mills decreased (down 4.80 tons or 5.89% to 76.74 tons) [63]. - Shipment and Arrival: In the week of February 27, the iron ore shipment from Australia (19 ports) was 1879.7 tons, 89.3 tons less than the previous week, and the shipment from Australia to China was 1509.2 tons, 158.1 tons less than the previous week. The shipment from Brazil was 737.7 tons, 51.1 tons more than the previous week. The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 2146.9 tons, 5.5 tons less than the previous week, at a relatively low level. In terms of monthly cumulative data, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil in the past four weeks were 9244.8 tons, 244 tons less than the previous four - week period, a decrease of 2.57%. The shipment from Australia to China was 5567.6 tons, accounting for 84.91% of Australia's total shipments, 364.3 tons less than the previous four - week period. The arrival volume in the past four weeks was 9078.6 tons, 1516.2 tons or 14.31% less than the previous four - week period. It is expected that the subsequent shipments may recover slightly, but affected by weather factors in the first quarter, the overall level will be relatively low. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival volume is expected to remain at a low level in early March [65]. - Domestic Ore Output and Operation: From January to December 2025, the domestic iron ore output was 984 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.59% (adjusted), and the decline increased by 2.58 percentage points compared with January to November 2025. As of March 6, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises rebounded (up 2.71 percentage points to 58.05% compared with the previous week). Affected by a local gold mine accident before the Spring Festival, some private mines in Shandong are still shut down, and the resumption time has been postponed. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, some mines are expected to shut down temporarily. It is expected that the iron concentrate output