2026年荷兰物流市场报告

Investment Rating - The Dutch logistics investment market is rated as stabilizing, with total investment volume in 2025 amounting to approximately €3.1 billion, consistent with 2024 levels [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in investor appetite towards core assets, with the share of core transactions increasing from approximately 66% in 2025 compared to 74% in 2024, indicating a renewed interest in core opportunities [4] - The prime net initial yield (NIY) for Tier 1 logistics assets was around 4.60% in 2025, with Tier 2 locations trading at a premium of approximately 50 basis points [6] - Vacancy levels increased to approximately 4.50%, primarily in older logistics stock that does not meet current occupier requirements [7] - Modern and well-located assets continue to see strong demand, supporting rental pricing and investment values, while new logistics development is constrained by planning regulations and sustainability requirements [8] Investment & Occupier Market - The investment market showed signs of stabilization in 2025, with improving market liquidity and a narrowing gap between buyer and seller pricing expectations [3] - A significant transaction involved a portfolio of six logistics assets acquired by P3 Logistic Parks, highlighting continued investor demand for scalable logistics portfolios [5] - The overall market remains balanced, with limited yield spread between Tier 1 and Tier 2 locations reflecting strong investor demand for both established and well-connected secondary logistics locations [6] Rental Market - The rental market in 2025 shows a clear distinction between established prime hubs and emerging regions, with core locations like Amsterdam/Schiphol and Rotterdam at the top of the rental spectrum [13] - Year-on-year rental growth remains positive across most markets, although at a more moderate pace compared to previous years, with modern facilities achieving higher rental levels [15] - Occupier fundamentals remained supportive, with logistics take-up driven by third-party logistics providers and ongoing supply chain optimization [16] European Perspective - The Netherlands logistics market reflects wider European trends, with softer occupier demand and slower rental growth, yet underlying demand remains robust due to structural forces [22][23] - Amsterdam is forecasted to have one of the strongest rental growth rates in Europe at 4.4% CAGR over the next five years, with Rotterdam at 3.9% [24] - The Netherlands is positioned to capture demand for modern logistics space, supported by its strategic location and focus on sustainable development [23][25] Strategic Gateway - The Netherlands plays a central role in Europe's logistics network, with the Port of Rotterdam handling around 14 million TEU annually, enhancing its appeal for logistics operations [28] - The sector is sensitive to geopolitical shifts, with the EU–US trade agreement expected to strengthen European trade flows from 2026 [29] - A significant shift in trade dynamics is anticipated with the removal of the EU's €150 de minimis duty threshold, increasing demand for large, modern warehouse facilities [30][31]