国泰海通香江策论之数据周报：伊朗战事驱动能源价格，港股硬核资产继续战略重估

Liquidity Data - The US dollar index rose 1.3% to 98.96, briefly hitting a three-month high before easing[2] - Brent crude oil surged 9.3% to US$93.3 amid geopolitical tensions[2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 18.4 basis points to 4.13% due to rising inflation concerns[2] - Hong Kong equities saw net inflows of HK$8 billion from foreign investors during Feb 26–Mar 4, but reversed to net outflows of HK$29.9 billion during Mar 5–6[2] Sector Trends - Southbound capital significantly increased exposure to energy and banks while accelerating outflows from e-commerce and reducing holdings in biotech and insurance[2] - In the Hong Kong market, hard assets like oil & petrochemicals and non-ferrous metals led gains, while gold prices retreated[6] - The strategic revaluation of oil and gas resources is ongoing, with global oilfield service capital expenditures recovering[6] Risks and Economic Outlook - Risks include the potential for Fed rate cuts to fall short of expectations and uncertainties surrounding China's economic recovery and local government debt resolution[49] - A prolonged blockade in the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil prices towards US$100+ per barrel, with a potential nominal supply shock of up to 20 million barrels per day[34]