镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20260308

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated March 6, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Indonesia's nickel ore quota reduction and an increase of over 1.5 million tons in the import of sulfur for hydrometallurgical nickel smelting support the smelting cost center [4] - The futures basis remains positive, with the spot price higher than the futures price, indicating a certain demand for spot premium [4] Bearish Factors - Weaker macro - expectations and stagnant pre - holiday demand lead to a weak fundamental situation, and market sentiment is changeable [4] - High inventory levels with a slight increase this week, limited contradictions in spot supply and demand, and inventory suppresses the upside space of prices [4] Trading Consultation Viewpoint - It is recommended to focus on the game between Indonesia's quota and macro - sentiment. In the short term, due to the support of tightened quotas offset by high inventory, the fundamentals show the characteristic of "inventory suppression but quota benefits". It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude and focus on the further impact of the geopolitical situation on the quota [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Nickel Futures: The latest price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 136,270 yuan/ton, down 4,620 yuan (-3.28%); the LME nickel 3M price is 17,215 US dollars/ton, down 480 US dollars (-2.42%); the trading volume decreased by 16.23% to 464,447 lots, and the open interest decreased by 0.7% to 217,527 lots [5] - Stainless Steel Futures: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 14,105 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan (-2%); the trading volume decreased by 40.47% to 95,306 lots, and the open interest decreased by 16.42% to 56,765 lots [5] - Spot Prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel is 143,650 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan (-0.31%); the price of imported nickel is 136,800 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (-0.18%) [5] - Inventory Data: Domestic social nickel inventory is 76,538 tons, an increase of 2,036 tons; LME nickel inventory is 287,550 tons, unchanged; stainless steel social inventory is 1,016.1 tons, an increase of 121.6 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons [6] Supply and Inventory of Primary Nickel - Production: China's refined nickel monthly production and primary nickel monthly total supply (including imports) show seasonal patterns [13] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans) and LME nickel inventory also exhibit seasonal characteristics [14] Upstream Nickel Ore - Price of Nickel Ore: The average price of 1.5% Philippine laterite nickel ore (FOB) shows a long - term trend [16] - Inventory of Nickel Ore: China's port nickel ore inventory shows seasonal changes by port [17] - Price of Nickel Pig Iron: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China and the average price of Ni≥14% Indonesian nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) are presented [18] - Production of Nickel Pig Iron: China's and Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production shows seasonal patterns [19][20] Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Price of Nickel Sulfate: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate shows a trend over time [22] - Profit Margin: The profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans and the profit margin of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China show seasonal characteristics [25] - Production and Capacity: China's monthly production of nickel sulfate (in metal tons) and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors show seasonal patterns [26] Stainless Steel - Profit Margin: The profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils shows seasonal characteristics [28] - Production: Stainless steel monthly production shows seasonal patterns [30] - Inventory: Stainless steel inventory shows seasonal characteristics [31]