策略周报：中东硝烟未散，两会定调落地-20260308

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The bond market remains favorable, awaiting a correction for positioning. The net financing scale of government bonds in March is slightly lower than in February, with limited impact from increased trading days. Historically, bond yields tend to decline after the Two Sessions, supported by increased demand for bond allocation due to widening loan-to-deposit growth differentials and uncertainties in the Middle East [1][12] - The current 10-year government bond yield is around 1.79%, with limited short-term upside risk. It is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation. If yields rise to 1.82%-1.83% due to short-term disturbances, it may present a slight positioning opportunity [1][12] Group 2: Stock Market Analysis - The stock market is expected to adopt a steady approach, favoring large-cap cyclical stocks. Based on historical trends from the Two Sessions, growth-style sectors may face increased profit-taking pressure, while large-cap blue-chip and cyclical styles are likely to perform better in stabilizing the index [2][14] - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East are expected to suppress global market risk appetite until they ease. In the short term, attention should be given to sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, energy, and high-dividend stocks from Hong Kong central enterprises. From mid-March to mid-April, the focus may shift back to sectors with high earnings certainty, such as AI hardware, semiconductors, electric power grids, and new energy [2][14] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Government Policies - The government work report released on March 5 sets the economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5%-5% and aims for a consumer price increase of around 2%. The policy tone is more pragmatic, emphasizing high-quality development [8][9] - The report outlines ten key tasks for 2026, including building a strong domestic market, fostering new growth drivers, accelerating technological self-reliance, and enhancing risk prevention and safety capabilities [9]