大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260309

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - 沪镍: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. Despite the impact of RKAB and other news, rapid changes in the macro - environment led to a relatively weak performance under the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals. In March, production is scheduled to increase, domestic inventories continue to accumulate, and market supply is sufficient. The nickel ore market has a strong bullish sentiment, but there is a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia due to RKAB policy changes and sluggish domestic transactions caused by cost inversion. Nickel iron prices continue to rebound with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories have slightly declined, indicating weak demand. New energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season. The conclusion is that SHFE nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, demand in Indonesia is strong, and nickel iron prices are rebounding, providing strong cost - line support. Stainless steel inventories have slightly declined, and demand is weak. The conclusion is that stainless steel 2604 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures: On March 6, the price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 137,140, up 870 from March 5; the price of LME nickel was 17,450, up 235; the price of stainless steel's main contract was 14,210, up 95. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 136,850, up 1100, and the cold - rolled coil index was 13,801, up 75 [9]. - Spot: On March 6, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,500, up 150; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 143,950, up 300; the price of 1 imported nickel was 137,000, up 200; the price of nickel beans was 139,650, up 200. Cold - rolled coil 304*2B prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou remained unchanged at 15,100, and the price in Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,150 [9]. 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 6, the SHFE nickel inventory was 61,769 tons, with the futures inventory at 53,568 tons, an increase of 978 tons and 437 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory remained unchanged at 287,550 tons, and the total inventory increased by 1 ton to 341,118 tons [11][12]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 6, the inventory in Wuxi was 618,600 tons, in Foshan was 398,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1.15 million tons, a decrease of 22,300 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 716,300 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons [16]. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts on the futures market were 51,953 tons, a decrease of 122 tons [17]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On March 6, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 74 US dollars per wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 31 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged. The freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 10.5 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 11.5 US dollars per ton, both unchanged. The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 1,086.93 yuan per nickel point, up 1.12, and the price of low - nickel (below 2) was 3,750 yuan per ton, unchanged [19]. 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional cost of stainless steel was 14,151 yuan, the cost of scrap - steel production was 14,298 yuan, and the cost of low - nickel + pure - nickel production was 18,015 yuan [21]. 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 136,457 yuan per ton [24].