大越期货钢材早报-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As the policy expectations of the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black - series commodities will return to the fundamental logic. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the mismatch between the "high - inventory reality" and the "peak - season demand expectation". In the short term, whether the demand recovery intensity can match the supply recovery speed will be the key variable, and the market is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot and Basis - For rebar, the spot price and basis information are provided, with a basis of 102, indicating a bullish signal. For hot - rolled coil, the spot price is 3230 yuan/ton and the basis is 0, showing a neutral signal [1][2] Profit and Cost - For rebar, the supply is continuously recovering, the inventory of steel mills and society is accumulating, the spot price is under pressure, and the disk profit is further declining, showing a bearish signal [1] Capacity and Inventory - Rebar: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 6.3775 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, showing a bearish signal. Hot - rolled coil: The social inventory has climbed to the highest level since April 2020, and the inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.8161 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, showing a bearish signal [1][2] Rebar Demand and Downstream - No specific content provided in the report Hot - Rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - The downstream consumption volume has increased, but the intensity is still insufficient to digest the high - level inventory, showing a bearish signal [2] Macro - As the policy expectations of the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black - series commodities will return to the fundamental logic, and the market is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [1][2]