大越期货尿素早报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and supply pressure, weak industrial demand but with recovery expectations, and the agricultural demand temporarily at the end of the stage. The urea futures main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors for urea. Bullish factors include the gradual transition of agricultural demand to the peak season and the continuous strengthening of overseas prices. Bearish factors include the historical high of daily production [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural gas plants, daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is still at a historical high. Industrial demand is weak overall but has recovery expectations. Compound fertilizer operating rate is rising, while melamine operating rate is falling. Agricultural demand has temporarily ended its stage - based demand, and comprehensive inventory has increased. The international price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and international exports has widened. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (unchanged). [4] - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is 20, and the premium - discount ratio is 1.1%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 128.8 tons (-6.2), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net short position of the UR main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. With high daily production year - on - year, differentiated industrial demand, the peak of agricultural demand, and inventory accumulation, the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1850 | 0 | 05 Contract | 1830 | 16 | Warehouse Receipt | 2860 | 1585 | | Shandong Spot | 1880 | 0 | Basis | 20 | -16 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 128.8 | -6.2 | | Henan Spot | 1850 | 0 | UR01 | 1819 | 14 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 109.8 | -7.8 | | FOB China | 3323 | | UR05 | 1830 | 16 | UR Port Inventory | 19.0 | 16 | | | | | UR09 | 1843 | 14 | | | | [6] Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]