大越期货油脂早报-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the grease market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a generally neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic grease supply. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and it is expected to implement the B50 plan in 2026 [2][3][4] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Supply - As of January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [2] - The port inventory of palm oil on January 9 was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and a year - on - year increase of 46% [3] - The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil on January 9 was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a year - on - year decrease of 44% [4] - Other supply - related items include soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, rapeseed inventory, and total domestic grease inventory, but specific data are not provided [8][10][21][23] Demand - Demand - related items include soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption, but specific data are not provided [12][14] Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] - Palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Market Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil production season is approaching [5] - Likely Negative Factors: Grease prices are at a relatively high historical level, domestic grease inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related greases is high [5] - Main Logic: The global grease fundamental situation is relatively loose [5]