大越期货生猪期货早报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic southern pigs' secondary fattening period has ended, leading to a short - term decrease in slaughter, which supports pig prices. Meanwhile, the demand for cured meat and sausages has also ended, resulting in a decrease in both pig and meat supply. The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve, but pork consumption has entered the off - season after the Spring Festival, and short - term overall consumption remains pessimistic. The market supply is expected to decrease this week, and the demand is also weak. Pig prices may enter a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms at the beginning of the month and the dynamic changes at the bottom of the futures market when the spot price runs weakly in the short term after the release of the secondary fattening market [8]. - The recent supply and demand of pigs have both decreased. It is expected that pig prices will return to the range - bound pattern after adjustment this week. The LH2605 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,000 - 11,400 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given report 3.2 Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market is affected by the end of the peak demand season. With the end of secondary fattening in the south, pig slaughter has decreased, and the supply of pigs is expected to decline. The spot price is weak in the short term and will maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term [10]. - After the peak demand season for pigs, the pig spot market has entered a stage of reduced supply and weak demand. The room for further price decline in the short term may be limited, and prices may bottom out and return to the oscillating pattern [10]. - The losses in domestic pig farming have fluctuated slightly recently, remaining slightly in the red in the short term. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has increased in the short term, and the weak supply - demand situation suppresses the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The pig spot price is weak in the short term, and the futures price oscillates and declines in the short term, bottoming out and rising or maintaining a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed in the future [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish Factors: Domestic pig supply is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the domestic pig - grain ratio has fallen to the historical low range [11]. - Bearish Factors: Domestic pig demand is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the year - on - year decrease in domestic pig inventory is lower than expected [11]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - side Data: As of December 31, the pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a monthly decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of December, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, a monthly decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [8]. As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [26]. - Price Data: The national average spot price of pigs is 10,290 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2605 contract is - 870 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [8]. The report also provides the prices of live pig futures, live pig futures warrants, and the spot prices of ternary outer - bred pigs in different regions from February 27 to March 6 [12]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [8].