大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that last week's lithium carbonate production was 22,590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.51%, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, the production was 83,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. The import volume in February was 21,800 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.27% [8][9]. - On the demand side, last week, the inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 100,529 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.61%, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 17,811 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.35%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 154,280 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.02%, with a production profit of - 1,102 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 154,659 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production profit of - 4,984 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production profit and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - The overall evaluation is that under the tight balance of supply and demand, the market is affected by sentiment fluctuations caused by news. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate between 150,660 - 162,540 yuan/ton [9]. - The positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. The negative factors are the continuous high supply of the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 22,590 tons, a 3.51% week - on - week increase. In February 2026, the production was 83,090 tons, and next month's production is predicted to be 106,390 tons, a 28.04% increase. The import volume in February was 21,800 tons, and next month's import is predicted to be 26,000 tons, a 19.27% increase [8][9]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary material sample enterprises increased last week. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month and inventory will decrease [8][9]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased slightly, and the cost of purchased lithium mica remained unchanged. The production of the recycling end was unprofitable, while the salt lake end had sufficient profit margins [8]. - Comprehensive Evaluation: The fundamentals are bullish; the basis is neutral; the inventory is neutral; the disk is neutral; the main position is bearish. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate will fluctuate between 150,660 - 162,540 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Positive and Negative Factors: Positive factors are the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in imports from Chile. Negative factors are the high - level supply of the ore/salt lake end [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Price and Basis: The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate on March 6 was 155,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 910 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate decreased, and the monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide showed different trends [19]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly operating rate and production of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary precursors, and ternary materials decreased. The monthly power battery loading volume and new energy vehicle production and sales also declined [19]. - Inventory Data: The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly week - on - week, with the inventory of smelters decreasing and the inventory of downstream enterprises increasing. The inventory of lithium hydroxide also showed different trends [19].