大越期货豆粕早报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal (M2605): Expected to oscillate between 2940 and 3000. Influenced by the upward movement of US soybeans, the escalation of the Middle - East situation, and short - term restrictions on imported soybeans, it has entered a short - term bullish oscillation pattern. However, factors such as the completion of China's US soybean purchases and favorable weather in South American soybean - producing areas may limit its upside [9]. - Soybeans (A2605): Forecasted to fluctuate between 4700 and 4800. Affected by the rise of US soybeans, the expected decrease in imported soybean arrivals due to the Middle - East conflict, and the good short - term demand, it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The purchase volume of US soybeans in China is still uncertain, and the overall good weather in South American soybean - producing areas will cap its upper limit [11]. 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal: Oscillating between 2940 - 3000, with a short - term bullish oscillation pattern. The basis shows a premium, the inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day average, but the net short position of the main contract has increased [9]. - Soybeans: Fluctuating between 4700 - 4800, with a short - term high - level oscillation. The basis shows a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is above the 20 - day average, and the main contract has shifted from long to short [11]. 3.2 Recent News - Preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the purchase volume and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The short - term trend of the US soybean market is bullish, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills will remain at a relatively high level in March. The weather for soybean planting and growth in South America is relatively normal, and soybean meal will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [13]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, and the demand for soybean meal in March will remain low, suppressing the price of soybean meal. The influence of US soybeans and the weak demand for soybean meal will have a cross - impact [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations has an impact. Soybean meal will oscillate bullishly in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Middle - East situation, the determination of South American soybean production, and further guidance on Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; no pressure on the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; uncertain weather in South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in March will remain at a relatively high level; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is progressing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. - Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation [15]. - Bearish factors: A bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Transaction Data: The report provides the transaction average price and volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from February 26 to March 6, as well as the price data of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from February 27 to March 6 [16][18]. - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: It includes the global soybean supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 to 2025 and the domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 to 2025 [32][33]. - Sowing and Growth Progress: It details the sowing and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2023/24 season, the sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024, the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, and the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons [34][35][39][42]. - USDA Supply and Demand Reports: It presents the USDA's monthly supply and demand reports from July 2025 to February 2026, including planting area, yield, production, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume [44]. 3.5 Position Data - The report provides the soybean and soybean meal warehouse receipt statistics from February 25 to March 6 [20]. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - Soybean and Soybean Meal Market: The soybean meal futures have rebounded, while the spot is relatively weak, and the spot premium continues to narrow. The soybean input volume of oil mills has rebounded from a low level, and the soybean meal production in February has decreased slightly year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have fluctuated slightly, and the short - term stocking demand has weakened. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has widened [23][25][27][29]. - Import and Export and Inventory: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has rebounded from a low level and increased year - on - year. The soybean inventory of oil mills has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased from a high level [45][47][50]. - Livestock Market: The pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The pig price has continued to decline recently, and the piglet price has fluctuated slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit loss has widened, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio have dropped to a low level [57][59][63][65].