（豆粕周报3.2-3.6）：中东局势升级，豆粕大幅回升-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Views - For Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean meal is in an oscillating and moderately strong pattern in the short - term, driven by the upward movement of US soybeans and the short - term restriction of imported soybeans due to intensified Middle - East conflicts. However, the ample supply of imported soybeans and the high yield expectation of South American soybeans suppress the upward potential. The market is waiting for the follow - up implementation of the China - US trade agreement, the harvest weather in South American soybean - producing areas, and the clarification of the Middle - East situation [10]. - For Soybeans: Domestic soybeans maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term. The short - term good demand and the expected decrease in the arrival of imported soybeans due to the escalation of the Middle - East conflict support the price. But the uncertainty of the follow - up China - US trade negotiation, the new - season domestic soybean yield increase expectation, and the spot price limit the upward height [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - No specific content provided for weekly hints 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement of the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's soybean purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean futures are in a moderately strong oscillation in the short - term, awaiting further guidance [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remains relatively high in March. The soybean meal price returns to range oscillation in the short - term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profit leads to a low expectation of pig restocking, suppressing the soybean meal price in March. The price is affected by both the upward movement of US soybeans and the weak demand [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains relatively high. Due to the possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas and the influence of the preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement, the soybean meal is oscillating moderately strongly in the short - term, waiting for further clarification of the Middle - East situation, the determination of South American soybean yield, and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish Factors: The preliminary agreement of the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no significant pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish Factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains relatively high in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is progressing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a high yield under normal weather conditions [14]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of the harvest weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish Factors: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean price; the expected increase in domestic demand for soybeans supports the price expectation [15]. - Bearish Factors: The preliminary agreement of the China - US trade negotiation leads to an increase in China's purchase of US soybeans; the expected increase in the new - season domestic soybean yield suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of the weather in US and South American soybean - producing areas and the follow - up of the China - US trade agreement [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Weather: The short - term weather in Brazilian soybean - producing areas is normal, with a bearish or neutral impact in the short - and medium - term [9]. - Import Cost: US soybeans are oscillating upward, and the interaction between China's soybean purchase and the high yield of South American soybeans affects the import cost. The import cost is expected to oscillate upward, with a bullish or neutral impact [9]. - Oil Mill Pressing: The short - term demand for soybean meal is weak, but the pressing volume of oil mills is rising from a low level. The demand is expected to recover in the short - term, and the operating rate of oil mills is expected to rise from a low level, with a bearish impact [9]. - Transaction Volume: The enthusiasm for downstream forward stocking has improved, and the market transaction volume is expected to rise from a low level, with a bullish or neutral impact [9]. - Oil Mill Inventory: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills has decreased, but with the low - level recovery of the upstream operating rate, the inventory is expected to increase, with a bearish impact [9]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in, showing a bearish signal [10]. - Soybeans: The main long positions have turned to short positions, and funds have flowed out, showing a bearish signal [11]. 3.6 Trading Strategies 3.6.1 Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are oscillating above the 1200 mark in the short - term, and soybean meal is maintaining range oscillation. The M2605 contract is oscillating in the range of 2900 - 3100 in the short - term, and short - term range trading is recommended [17]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. 3.6.2 Soybeans - Futures: The A2605 contract of soybeans is oscillating in the range of 4700 - 4900, and short - term range trading is recommended [20]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [20]. 3.7 Next Week's Concerns - Most Important: The harvest weather and export situation in South American soybean - producing areas; the follow - up implementation of the China - US trade agreement; the arrival of imported soybeans in China and the operating status of oil mills [75]. - Second - most Important: The domestic demand for soybean meal; the inventory of domestic oil mills and the downstream procurement situation [75]. - Less Important: Macroeconomic factors, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict [75].