大越期货棉花周报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, cotton continued to move sideways, digesting the previous gains. In the short - term, the fundamental factors are favorable, and the futures price is slightly bullish with oscillations. Cotton is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 in the short term [5][6]. - The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" for cotton have arrived. The US tariffs have been lowered, and Sino - US relations have eased, which is beneficial for textile exports [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the expected reduction of Xinjiang cotton planting area by over 10% in 2026, pre - holiday downstream restocking, reduced export tariffs to the US, improved Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April" peak seasons. Negative factors include the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 3.2 Daily Hints No relevant information provided. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Data: According to ICAC, the global cotton consumption in 2026/27 is expected to be 25 million tons, and the output is 24.8 million tons. The output in 2026/27 is expected to decrease by 4% mainly due to the reduction in Brazil and the US. Consumption remains relatively stable, with the decrease in Chinese consumption offset by the growth in India and Vietnam. The global cotton ending inventory is expected to decline by 1%, and China's inventory is expected to drop by 5% to 7.7 million tons [5][15]. - USDA February Report: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton output is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. In China, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [5]. - Customs Data: In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%; cotton yarn imports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [5]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant information provided.