大越期货白糖周报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - This week, sugar prices fluctuated and rose, with the main contract 05 reaching the 5400 level. Technically, it shows a bullish trend, having broken away from the bottom in the short - term and the trend has reversed. The downstream market's post - holiday restocking and rising oil prices support sugar prices. In the short - term, a volatile and bullish outlook is maintained [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, increased syrup tariffs, the use of sucrose in the new US cola formula, and rising oil prices. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production and the opening of the import profit window due to the drop in foreign sugar prices [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day Review (Weekly Review) - This week, sugar prices fluctuated and rose. The main 05 contract reached 5400. Technically, short - term moving averages crossed long - term moving averages upwards, and the K - line began to diverge upwards, indicating a bullish pattern [5]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar market supply and demand. Datagro predicts a 268 - million - ton sugar deficit in the 26/27 season. ISO expects a 122 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season, down from the previous estimate of 163 million tons. Covrig Analytics expects the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 140 million tons, lower than the 470 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool expects a 15.6 - million - ton surplus in the 26/27 season, lower than the 274 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season [5]. - As of the end of January 2026, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 689 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 290 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 58 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 19 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 6.97 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.08 million tons [5]. 3.2 Daily Prompt - Bullish factors: Possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, increased syrup tariffs, the use of sucrose in the new US cola formula, and rising oil prices. Bearish factors: Increase in global sugar production, a new - season global supply surplus, the drop in foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Different institutions' forecasts for the 25/26 season's global sugar market supply and demand: ISO expects a 122 - million - ton surplus (previously 163 million tons), StoneX expects a 290 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow raises the expected surplus to 740 million tons, Green Pool expects a 15.6 - million - ton surplus in the 26/27 season (lower than 274 million tons in the 25/26 season), and USDA expects a 139.7 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season [8]. - In China, the domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a gap, but the long - term gap is decreasing. The average spot sales price of domestic sugar is around 5300. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff on raw sugar. From January 1, 2025, the import tariff on syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, slightly lower than the out - of - quota import tariff on raw sugar [8]. - Sugar production, consumption, import and export data in different seasons in China, as well as sugar - cane and sugar - beet planting area, yield, and price data [32]. - The cost and profit data of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff [36]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided