大越期货原油周报-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Due to the worsening Middle - East conflicts, the oil price has a large upward space. It is recommended to go long in the 700 - 850 range for short - term operations and stay on the sidelines for long - term operations [7] Summary by Directory 1. Review - Last week, crude oil prices continued to rise due to the deterioration of the Middle - East conflict. The New York Mercantile Exchange's main light crude oil futures closed at $91.27 per barrel, up 35.64% for the week; Brent crude oil futures closed at $93.32 per barrel, up 27.47% for the week; China's crude oil futures SC main contract closed at 753.4 yuan per barrel, up 54.26% for the week [5] - Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery was shut down after a drone attack. The conflict in the Middle - East has expanded to energy infrastructure, increasing the risk of energy supply disruption and global economic impact. Many shipping insurance companies have cancelled war - risk coverage for relevant vessels [5] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely hampered exports from the world's most important oil - producing region. Consumption countries are seeking alternative supply sources, and global inflation risks have increased [5] - Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has declared force majeure. Kuwait's production cut started at about 100,000 barrels per day on Saturday and is expected to triple on Sunday. The subsequent production cut will depend on storage levels and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [6] - The UAE is adjusting its offshore production levels to meet storage needs. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has an alternative pipeline, but it cannot fully replace the Strait of Hormuz [6] - Saudi Arabia has diverted some crude oil exports to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast to avoid risks in the Strait of Hormuz [6] - The US is considering sending ground troops to Iran, and one option is to send special operations forces to destroy key nuclear facilities in Iran [6] 2. Related Information - Not specifically presented in a separate part, but related information is included in the "Review" section 3. Outlook - The situation in the Middle - East is still deteriorating. It is expected that shipping and energy production problems in the Strait of Hormuz will persist, and oil prices have a large upward space [7] - Short - term operation: go long in the 700 - 850 range; long - term operation: stay on the sidelines [7] 4. Fundamental Data - Spot Weekly Prices: The prices of various crude oil varieties have increased. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $71.84 to $85.41, with a rise of 18.89%; WTI increased from $65.92 to $78.47, with a rise of 19.04% [10] - Cushing Inventory: The inventory has fluctuated. For example, on December 12, it was 20.862 million barrels, with a decrease of 742,000 barrels compared to the previous period [11] - EIA Inventory: The inventory has also fluctuated. For example, on December 26, it was 422.888 million barrels, with a decrease of 1.934 million barrels compared to the previous period [12] 5.持仓 Data - CFTC Fund Net Long Positions: As of March 3, the net long positions of WTI crude oil decreased by 562 contracts to 172,150 contracts [5][18] - ICE Fund Net Long Positions: As of March 3, the net long positions of Brent crude oil decreased by 35,358 contracts to 285,594 contracts [5][19]