大越期货纯碱早报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: The operating load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II project has increased, and the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, with sufficient overall supply expected. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has been declining, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level for the same period, showing a bearish trend [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,242 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 22 yuan, indicating that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9472 million tons, an increase of 2.79% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][31]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the shorts are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Likely: The cold repair of downstream float glass is less, and the output remains stable. The conflict between the US and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment in the market [4]. - Unlikely: The operating load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line has increased, and there is no expectation of new overhauls, so the output is expected to remain high. The production of heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,225 | 1,242 | 1.39% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | 1,205 | 1,220 | 1.24% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 20 | - 22 | 10.00% | [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production Profit The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 154.65 yuan/ton, and the profit using the East China co - production process is - 70.50 yuan/ton, which is at a historically low level [14]. 3.6 Soda Ash Operating Rate and Production - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.04% [17]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 807,000 tons, including 432,300 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the output is at a historically high level [19]. 3.7 Soda Ash Industry Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons, including contributions from Anhui Hongsifang, Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy, Henan Lingshan, and Chongqing Xiangyu [20]. - In 2024, the total new capacity was 1.8 million tons, from Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy, Henan Jinshan, and Henan Zhongda [20]. - In 2025, the planned new capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual expected production of 1 million tons, from companies such as Jiangsu Lianyungang Debang, Lianyungang Alkali Plant, and Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy [20]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Soda Ash Sales Rate: The weekly sales rate of soda ash is 61.12% [23]. - Downstream Demand: - Float Glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,500 tons, and the operating rate is 70.81% [26]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The document does not provide specific data on the decline in production, but it mentions that the demand for soda ash has weakened due to production cuts [4]. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9472 million tons, an increase of 2.79% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [31]. 3.10 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates of capacity, output, apparent supply, and total demand [32].