大越期货贵金属早报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Gold: US non - farm employment cooled sharply, combined with soaring oil prices due to Middle East production cuts, the US dollar rose significantly again, causing the gold price to rise and then fall. Geopolitical concerns have cooled, but stagflation concerns have increased, and the upward pressure on the US dollar continues. It is recommended to operate in the range of 1120 - 1150 for Shanghai Gold 2604 [4]. - Silver: US non - farm employment cooled sharply, combined with soaring oil prices due to Middle East production cuts, the US dollar rose significantly again, causing the silver price to fall in the morning. Risk appetite is low, and the safe - haven sentiment has also cooled, making the silver price weak. It is recommended to operate in the range of 20300 - 22300 for Shanghai Silver 2604 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1前日回顾 - Gold: The US non - farm employment cooled sharply, combined with soaring oil prices due to Middle East production cuts, the US dollar rose significantly again, and the gold price rose and then fell. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, and the three major European stock indexes also closed down. The US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 0.20 basis points to 4.138%. The US dollar index fell 0.09% to 98.96, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 6.9093. COMEX gold futures rose 2.02% to $5181.30 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The US non - farm employment cooled sharply, combined with soaring oil prices due to Middle East production cuts, the US dollar rose significantly again, and the silver price fell in the morning. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, and the three major European stock indexes also closed down. The US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 0.20 basis points to 4.138%. The US dollar index fell 0.09% to 98.96, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 6.9093. COMEX silver futures rose 3.06% to $84.69 per ounce [5]. 3.2每日提示 - Gold: The basis is - 2.1, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 105033 kg, unchanged, which is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral; the main net long position is held, and the main long position is reduced, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 360, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 255952 kg, a decrease of 16769 kg, which is bullish; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish; the main net long position is held, and the main long position is reduced, which is bullish [5]. 3.3今日关注 - 07:30: Japan's January labor cash income - 07:50: Japan's January trade balance - 09:30: China's February CPI and PPI - 15:00: Germany's January factory orders and industrial output - 17:30: Eurozone's March Sentix investor confidence index - TBD: The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opens - 23:00: US February New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation [14] 3.4基本面数据 - Gold: Mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and continuous easing, and there is still support at the macro level [9]. - Silver: There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include global turmoil, tense US - Iran relations, significant shadow Fed, possible determination of the new Fed chairman, rising easing expectations, a sharp decline in the US dollar, the resurgence of Trump's tariff storm, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors for the silver price, and low spot inventory with intense supply shortage games. Bearish factors include the marginal impact of Trump's "escape strategy" fading, large internal differences within the Fed, the Fed starting to suspend interest rate cuts, the deterioration of risk appetite, and the optimistic expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. 3.5持仓数据 - Gold: The long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold on March 6, 2026, was 154,768, a decrease of 1,988 or 1.27% compared with March 5; the short position volume was 43,251, a decrease of 765 or 1.74%; the net position was 111,517, a decrease of 1,223 or 1.08% [34]. - Silver: The long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai Silver on March 5, 2026, was 273,112, a decrease of 6,135 or 2.20% compared with March 4; the short position volume was 271,108, a decrease of 6,777 or 2.44%; the net position was 2,004, an increase of 642 or 47.14% [37]. - ETF: The SPDR gold ETF holdings are decreasing; the silver ETF holdings are also continuing to decrease [39][41]. - Warehouse receipts: COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level; Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly; Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years; COMEX silver warehouses continued to decrease [43][45].