大越期货原油早报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Oil prices have breached the $100 per - barrel mark for the first time since 2022. The Iran conflict is severely constraining global oil supplies, with limited strait navigation and some oil - producing countries starting passive production cuts. The attack on Iranian oil facilities has further panicked the market. Short - term crude oil will continue to rise, and it is expected that the domestic oil price will hit the daily limit today. SC2604 is expected to trade in the 765 - 771.9 range, and there will be opportunities to try short positions on rallies in the long - term [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the government would continue military operations and strike "mercilessly" against Iranian rulers. Due to the Iran war, Iraq's southern main oilfield production has dropped 70% to 1.3 million barrels per day, and Kuwait National Petroleum Company has also started to cut production and declared force majeure [3] - Basis: On March 6, the Oman crude oil spot price was $100.8 per barrel, the Qatar Marine crude oil spot price was $86.24 per barrel, and the basis was 31.53 yuan/barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3] - Inventory: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ended February 27 increased by 5.647 million barrels (expected +2.2 million barrels), EIA inventories increased by 3.475 million barrels (expected +2.305 million barrels), Cushing area inventories increased by 1.564 million barrels, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventories as of March 6 were 2.557 million barrels, unchanged [3] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average [3] - Main Position: As of March 3, the main long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil both decreased [3] - Expectation: Short - term upward, SC2604 to trade in the 765 - 771.9 range, long - term wait for shorting opportunities on rallies [3] 3.2 Recent News - Due to the Iran conflict, more major oil - producing countries have cut production. WTI and Brent crude oil both exceeded $100 per barrel on Monday. WTI once soared more than 21% to over $111 per barrel, and Brent rose more than 15%. The U.S. President threatened to further escalate the conflict. The UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq have cut production [5] - IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said on the 6th that the logistics disruptions caused by the Middle East war are challenging many countries, but the global oil supply is still sufficient. All options are under discussion, but there is no plan to use the emergency oil reserve at present [5] - Iraq's southern oilfield production has dropped 70% to 1.3 million barrels per day. The U.S. military is formulating a plan to pass ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. may lift more sanctions on Russian oil. Qatar said that if the Iran conflict continues and oil prices rise to $150 per barrel, all Gulf energy producers are expected to stop exports within weeks. Kuwait has also cut production and declared force majeure [5] 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Likely to Rise: Sanctions on Russia, deterioration of the Middle East situation [6] - Likely to Fall: IEA's concern about crude oil surplus, alleviation of supply problems in some oil - producing countries [6] - Market Driver: Short - term focus on geopolitics, long - term risk of supply exceeding demand [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil have all increased, with increases of 4.93%, 8.51%, 6.68%, and 4.68% respectively [7] - Spot Market: The prices of most spot crude oils have increased, except for a 1.02% decrease in Shengli crude oil. The increases in British Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, and Dubai crude oil are 8.46%, 8.51%, 10.16%, and 10.15% respectively [9] - Inventory Data: API and EIA inventories in the United States have generally shown an upward trend in recent weeks. As of February 27, API inventories increased by 5.647 million barrels, and EIA inventories increased by 3.475 million barrels [10][12] 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: The net long position of WTI crude oil funds as of March 3 was 172,150, a decrease of 562 from the previous period [17] - Brent Crude Oil: The net long position of Brent crude oil funds as of March 3 was 285,594, a decrease of 35,358 from the previous period [19]