关税冲击：对私人市场影响的看法（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US Supreme Court's decision to reintroduce global tariffs has created significant volatility in public markets, impacting investor sentiment and strategies across private markets [4] - Tariff-related uncertainties are expected to pressure leveraged loan markets, complicating private equity (PE) deployment and exit plans, and introducing risks into underwriting decisions [8][15] - Venture capital (VC) dealmaking remains dominated by AI investments, but liquidity and fundraising challenges are anticipated due to tariff impacts [22][26] Summary by Sections Credit - Tariff-related policy uncertainty is affecting the broader transaction ecosystem, leading to a decline in new institutional loan issuance and widening yields in the leveraged loan market [9][10] - The US leveraged loan index has seen a decline of 0.4% year-to-date, with February 2026 on track to be one of the slowest months for new issues since June 2023 [10] - European leveraged loan markets are also subdued, with secondary loan prices dipping due to tariff news [12][11] Private Equity - The reintroduction of tariffs has disrupted a previously stable environment for PE deployment and exit activity, with potential refunds of $170 billion to $200 billion adding complexity to deal-making [15][16] - The software sector, which accounted for nearly 20% of total deal value in 2025, is facing scrutiny due to AI-related disruptions, leading to a cautious approach from sponsors [18] - Economic performance remains a core driver of PE returns, with strong GDP growth and consumer spending supporting earnings despite policy uncertainties [21] Venture Capital - VC investment reached nearly $339 billion in 2025, driven largely by AI, but the impact of tariffs on liquidity and fundraising is expected to be significant [22][26] - The median VC valuation reached new highs in 2025, but the public market sell-off may affect late-stage company valuations [25] - Fundraising is increasingly concentrated among larger firms, with smaller firms facing challenges due to liquidity issues and tariff-induced uncertainties [30] Mature Industries and Emerging Technologies - A 10% to 15% global tariff is considered manageable for mature industries, but increased volatility could delay major investments and M&A activities [14][32] - Tariff refunds could provide significant cash flow to corporates, while the potential lapsing of tariffs may create economic tailwinds [33][34] - Emerging technologies, particularly those reliant on imported materials, may face higher costs due to tariffs, while most VC-backed startups remain insulated as they sell digital goods [36] European Private Markets - The latest US tariffs are likely to intensify challenges for European PE, particularly in export-heavy sectors, leading to valuation dislocation and delays in exits [37] - Capital allocation may shift towards domestically focused sectors in Europe, with increased interest in areas supported by policy initiatives [38] - The impact of tariffs on VC in Europe is nuanced, with hardware-intensive sectors facing higher costs while software models remain relatively insulated [39]