财政支持力度保持稳步化解城投债务风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report In 2026, the government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with the scale of new government debt remaining stable compared to 2025. The risk of local government debt is expected to remain controllable, and the risk of implicit debt will be further mitigated. The confidence in urban investment bonds in the market is expected to continue to improve [2][5][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fiscal Support Maintains High - Intensity and Reserves Room - The deficit ratio in 2026 is planned to be around 4%, the same as in 2025. Due to the expansion of the nominal GDP scale, the deficit has increased by 230 billion yuan to 5.89 trillion yuan, and the general public budget expenditure will reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [3]. - It is planned to issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan, the same as in 2025; issue special treasury bonds worth 30 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan less than in 2025 [3]. - It is planned to arrange local government special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan, the same as in 2025, mainly used for supporting major project construction, replacing implicit debts, and digesting government arrears [3]. - In 2026, new policy - based financial instruments worth 80 billion yuan will be issued, an increase of 30 billion yuan compared to 2025, which will drive more social capital to participate in investment [3]. Continued Resolution of Local Government Debt Risks - The funds for debt resolution in 2026 are still relatively abundant. 2 trillion yuan of local government bonds will be issued using the new local government bond quota to replace implicit debts, and 800 billion yuan will be allocated from new local government special bonds for debt resolution [5][6]. - The central government's support will remain at a high level. The central government has increased its own debt in recent years and continued to transfer payments to local governments at a high level. The transfer payments from the central government to local governments have exceeded 10 trillion yuan for three consecutive years from 2023 - 2025 and will further increase in 2026 [6]. - The opening up of local government fiscal revenue sources is expected to accelerate. Optimizing debt monitoring and assessment indicators and building a long - term mechanism for unified government debt management will help reduce the scale of implicit debts. Improving the local tax system and expanding local tax sources will help fundamentally alleviate the mismatch between local government revenues and expenditures and reduce local governments' dependence on implicit debts [9]. Urban Investment Bonds Will Continue to Be Supported Since 2024, the balance of on - shore urban investment bonds has declined for two consecutive years. The structure of local government bonds has changed significantly, with a shift towards relying mainly on long - term legal debt financing. The debt structure has been optimized, and the debt cost has decreased, enhancing fiscal sustainability. With the decrease in the supply of urban investment bonds and the decline in local government debt risks, market confidence in urban investment bonds is expected to continue to improve [13].