瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is oscillating with a bullish bias [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the HC2605 contract increased in price while reducing positions. The macro - economic aspect shows that the investment in key areas such as water network, power grid, computing power network, etc. will exceed 7 trillion yuan this year. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, with the capacity utilization dropping to around 77%. Terminal demand was weaker than expected, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. Overall, the hot - rolled coil market has both positive and negative factors, but the continuous rise in international oil prices supports commodity prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rebounding upwards with an enlarged red column [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,270 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the position volume was 1,292,623 lots, down 106,185 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was 37,176 lots, up 1,235 lots; the HC5 - 10 contract spread was - 12 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 479,016 tons, up 5,901 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 151 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,270 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,180 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 0 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, up 16 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 171.2272 million tons, up 264,100 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 630,300 tons, up 4,400 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.7153 million tons, down 35,300 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 2.3265 million tons, up 131,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 77.69%, down 2.55 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.3%, down 2.18 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.0111 million tons, down 85,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 76.92%, down 2.17 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 900,800 tons, down 47,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.8161 million tons, up 242,400 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.78 million tons, up 1.3 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.4499 million vehicles, down 846,100 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles was 2.3465 million vehicles, down 925,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.975 million units, down 38,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, the national ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month, the same as the previous month. From January to February, on average, the ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 1.2% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 1.1%. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and increased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month. The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in February was 51.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and has been above 50% for two consecutive months [2]