瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260309

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the hog price will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level. Although some breeding ends have price - holding behavior due to price decline and profit loss, and the spot price shows signs of stabilization, it is expected that this situation cannot be maintained for a long time. The slaughter enterprise's operating rate continues to increase, but due to weak demand, the room for future increase is limited. On the futures market, the main 2605 contract once rose to 11,435 yuan/ton during the session, then fell back, closing with a long - upper - shadow K - line and a 0.54% increase, indicating weak price rebound [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the futures main contract for hogs is 11,200 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40; the main contract's open interest is 180,023 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 6,829; the number of warehouse receipts is 1,150 lots, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 53,947 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,604 [2]. Spot Price - The hog price in Zhumadian, Henan is 10,600 yuan/ton, with no change; in Siping, Jilin it is 9,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100; in Yunfu, Guangdong it is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 400. The main hog basis is - 600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 40 [2]. Upstream Situation - The national hog inventory is 42,9670,000 heads, with a month - on - month decrease of 7130,000; the national inventory of breeding sows is 3,9610,000 heads, with a month - on - month decrease of 290,000 [2]. Industry Situation - The year - on - year increase of CPI is 0.2%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.6; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,070 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30; the spot price of corn is 2,417.84 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4.11; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's hog feed cost index is 963.13, with a week - on - week increase of 7.51; the monthly output of feed is 30,086,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 307,000; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,430 yuan/head, with a week - on - week increase of 1; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 58.89 yuan/head, with a week - on - week decrease of 79.72; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised hogs is - 237.98 yuan/head, with a week - on - week decrease of 78.33; the monthly import volume of pork is 60,000 tons, with no change; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13.8 yuan/kg, with no change [2]. Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises is 4,4040,000 heads, with a month - on - month decrease of 4870,000; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - Mysteel data shows that on March 9, the daily slaughter volume of hogs by sample slaughtering enterprises in key provinces was 118,817 heads, with a week - on - week increase of 1.87%. Combining sow production capacity and the number of newborn piglets, it is speculated that the supply pressure in the near - term remains, and according to information from information agencies, the planned slaughter volume in March will increase month - on - month [2]. Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the entry of second - fattening and the flow of funds [2].