瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall production of domestic methanol has decreased recently as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts is more than the output of restored production capacity. The supply in the market has increased as domestic MTO plants have resumed operation one after another and raised their load to a high level before the Spring Festival. Last week, inland enterprises had a slight inventory build - up, and port inventory remained basically stable. The overall situation was that the inventory in East China increased and that in South China decreased. This week, the arrival of foreign ships has decreased, but there may be some inland supplies. Demand may continue to recover, and port methanol inventory is expected to decline. The operation of domestic MTO enterprises' devices is stable, and the industry's operating rate is expected to remain stable. Due to the high uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, short - term price fluctuations are expected to be severe, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2,830 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 244 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 194 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main methanol contract is 13,332 lots. The open interest of the main methanol contract is 639,221 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 40,469 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 41,793 lots. The number of warehouse receipts for methanol is 10,396, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,860 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 400 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2,007.5 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 452.5 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 30 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 156 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 309 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 9 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 400 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 362 euros/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 9 euros/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 91 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 51 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.18 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.18 US dollars/million British thermal units [2] 3.4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 106.84 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.42 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 37.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.74 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 61.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 59.03 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.64 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 552,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,100 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.15 percentage points [2] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 28.72%, with a week - on - week increase of 14.02 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 2.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid is 84.11%, unchanged from the previous week. The operating rate of MTBE is 67.72%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins is 84.08%, unchanged from the previous week. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1,256 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 495 yuan/ton [2] 3.6. Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 51.02%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.63 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 39.25%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 54.74%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.2 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 54.76%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.23 percentage points [2] 3.7. Industry News - As of March 4, the inventory of China's sampled methanol production enterprises was 552,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,100 tons or 3.19%; the pending orders of sampled enterprises were 295,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 85,500 tons or 104.91%. As of March 4, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports was 1.4435 million tons, a decrease of 320 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 2,420 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 2,740 tons. As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05% [2]