Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by the Iran geopolitical conflict, which drives up the prices of coking coal and iron ore, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, real - estate policies are mainly stable with limited stimulus, and the market expectation returns to the fundamentals. The supply of hot - rolled coils is under pressure due to factors such as production restrictions and inventory, and the short - term rebound is limited [3]. - The price of iron ore near - month contracts is supported by the tight supply of tradable resources, but the upside is restricted by high supply pressure, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [22]. - The coking coal market faces supply pressure due to the resumption of domestic coal mines and the rapid recovery of Mongolian coal imports. The coking profit of coke has improved, but the weak terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [35]. - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel demand and high inventory of steel plates limit the upside space [51]. - For soda ash, supply maintenance may increase, affecting production. The demand is currently stable but weak, and the inventory is better than expected. The price upside is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside needs inventory accumulation [66]. - The glass market is in the recovery period with weak production and sales. The high inventory in the middle - stream and the expected return of supply limit the price increase, and the demand needs verification [89]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3174 yuan/ton, 3119 yuan/ton, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3291 yuan/ton, 3270 yuan/ton, and 3282 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed. For example, the rebar summary price in China on March 9, 2026, was 3323 yuan/ton [9]. Market Analysis - The Iran geopolitical conflict drives up the prices of coking coal and iron ore, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, real - estate policies are stable, and the market returns to fundamentals. The supply of hot - rolled coils is affected by production restrictions and inventory, and the short - term rebound is limited [3]. Iron Ore Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 741 yuan/ton, 784.5 yuan/ton, and 758 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao also increased [23]. Fundamental Data - The daily average pig iron output on March 6, 2026, was 227.59 tons, a decrease of 5.69 tons compared with the previous week. The 45 - port inventory was 17117.86 tons, an increase of 25.9 tons compared with the previous week [29]. Market Analysis - The price of iron ore near - month contracts is supported by the tight supply of tradable resources, but the upside is restricted by high supply pressure, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [22]. Coking Coal and Coke Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the price difference between coking coal 09 - 01 was - 209.5 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal and coke in different contracts and the corresponding price differences and profit data are also provided [36][39]. - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and the import and export profit data are also detailed [40]. Market Analysis - The coking coal market faces supply pressure due to the resumption of domestic coal mines and the rapid recovery of Mongolian coal imports. The coking profit of coke has improved, but the weak terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [35]. Ferroalloys Price Data - For ferrosilicon, on March 9, 2026, the spot prices in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, etc., increased. The price differences between different contracts are also provided [52]. - For ferromanganese, the spot prices in different regions also increased, and the price differences between different contracts are given [53][55]. Market Analysis - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel demand and high inventory of steel plates limit the upside space [51]. Soda Ash Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1276 yuan/ton, 1330 yuan/ton, and 1358 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions are also provided [67]. Market Analysis - Supply maintenance may increase, affecting production. The demand is currently stable but weak, and the inventory is better than expected. The price upside is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside needs inventory accumulation [66]. Glass Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1104 yuan/ton, 1211 yuan/ton, and 1280 yuan/ton respectively. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data are also provided [90]. - The daily production and sales data of glass in different regions are given [91]. Market Analysis - The glass market is in the recovery period with weak production and sales. The high inventory in the middle - stream and the expected return of supply limit the price increase, and the demand needs verification [89].
黑色产业链日报-20260309
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2026-03-09 10:03