铂钯金期货日报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The platinum and palladium futures market showed a downward trend today. The platinum 2606 contract fell 1.43% to 549.35 yuan per gram, and the palladium 2606 contract fell 2.18% to 412.70 yuan per gram. The dollar has been running strongly recently, and the recent inflation expectations have suppressed the interest rate cut expectations, putting pressure on the precious metals market. Geopolitical tensions have led to high market risk aversion. Fundamentally, platinum inventory remains tight, and the supply side in South Africa is restricted by factors such as power, cost, mine aging, and insufficient capital expenditure. The strategic attractiveness of platinum as an asset has increased. In contrast, although palladium also benefits from geopolitical conflicts and Russian supply risks, its medium - term logic is weaker than that of platinum. Its demand is mainly concentrated in gasoline vehicle catalysts, with a relatively single structure, and it faces dual pressure from the increase in electric vehicle penetration and platinum substitution in the long - term. In the short - term, there are many macro - level disturbances, and high market volatility may continue. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 549.35 yuan per gram, a decrease of 7.95 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 412.70 yuan per gram, a decrease of 9.20 yuan. The main contract position of platinum was 10,387 hands, a decrease of 277 hands; the main contract position of palladium was 3,179 hands, an increase of 90 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (Pt9995) was 538.93 yuan per gram, a decrease of 13.04 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 384.00 yuan per gram, a decrease of 6.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 10.42 yuan per gram, a decrease of 5.09 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 28.70 yuan per gram, an increase of 3.20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The CFTC non - commercial long positions of platinum were 9,966 contracts, a decrease of 243 contracts; the CFTC non - commercial long positions of palladium were 3,003 contracts, a decrease of 342 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 98.95, a decrease of 0.08; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.80%, a decrease of 0.02%. The VIX volatility index increased by 5.74 to 29.49 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Iran's clerical leadership announced the appointment of Mojtaba, the son of the late Supreme Leader Khamenei, as a counter - measure against US President Trump. Iranian President Pezeshkian called on the people to unite and defend the country, stating that Iran will not surrender unconditionally and will not attack neighboring countries unless attacked first. China's gold reserves at the end of February were reported at 74.22 million ounces (about 2,308.5 tons), an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) from January, marking the 16th consecutive month of increase. The US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected increase of 55,000, with private - sector employment decreasing by 86,000 and government employment decreasing by 6,000. The non - farm payrolls in January were revised to an increase of 126,000, and those in December were revised to a decrease of 17,000 [2]. 3.6 Key Points of Attention - On March 9 at 23:00, the US February New York Fed inflation expectations; on March 10 at 18:00, the US February NFIB small business confidence index; on March 10 at 22:00, the US February existing home sales data; on March 11 at 20:30, the US February CPI monthly and annual rates; on March 13 at 20:30, the US January core PCE price index; on March 13 at 22:00, the US January durable goods orders [2].