大越期货油脂早报-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are fluctuating and consolidating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil and fat supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Imported soybean inventory: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [6][8] - Soybean oil inventory: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [7][8] - Soybean meal inventory: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [9][10] - Oil mill soybean crushing: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [11][12] - Palm oil inventory: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [17][18] - Rapeseed oil inventory: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [19][20] - Rapeseed inventory: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [21][22] - Domestic total oil and fat inventory: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2019 [23][24] Demand - Soybean oil apparent consumption: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [13][14] - Soybean meal apparent consumption: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [15][16] Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. Neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 9100, the basis is 428, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. Bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. Bullish [2] - Main positions: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. Bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. Neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9750, the basis is 30, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 46%. Bearish [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. Bullish [3] - Main positions: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased. Bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. Neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10520, the basis is 566, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. Bullish [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. Bullish [4] - Main positions: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. Bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil tremor season [5] - 利空: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main logic: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose [5]