大越期货钢材早报-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - As the policy expectations of the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black - series commodities will return to the fundamental logic. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the mismatch between the "reality of high inventory" and the "expectation of peak - season demand". In the short term, whether the intensity of demand recovery can match the supply recovery speed will be the key variable, and the market is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot and Basis - Rebar: The spot price of rebar and the basis is 101, which is bullish [1] - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price of hot - rolled coil is 3260 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 10, which is neutral [2] 3.2 Profit and Cost No information provided. 3.3 Capacity and Inventory - Rebar: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 6.3775 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bearish [1] - Hot - rolled coil: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.8161 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The social inventory has climbed to the highest level since April 2020, and the inventory pressure is particularly prominent, which is bearish [2] 3.4 Rebar Demand and Downstream No information provided. 3.5 Hot - rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - The downstream consumption volume of hot - rolled coil has increased, but the strength is still insufficient to digest the high - level inventory [2] 3.6 Macro No information provided.