大越期货纯碱早报-20260310

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: The second - phase start - up load of Yuanxing Energy has increased, the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, the overall supply is expected to be abundant; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period, which is bearish [3] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,250 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,276 yuan/ton, the basis is - 26 yuan, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [3] - Inventory: The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 1.9472 million tons, an increase of 2.79% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [3] - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [3] - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [3] 2. Influence Factors Summary - Likely factors: Less cold repair of downstream float glass, stable output; the conflict between the United States and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment of the market [5] - Negative factors: The start - up load of the second - phase production line of Yuanxing Energy has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, and the output is expected to remain at a high level; the production of photovoltaic glass, the downstream of heavy soda ash, has been reduced, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [5] 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | Heavy soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | Main basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,242 | 1,220 | - 22 | | Current value | 1,276 | 1,250 | - 26 | | Increase/decrease | 2.74% | 2.46% | 18.18% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 5. Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 154.65 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is - 70.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15] 6. Soda Ash Start - up Rate, Production Capacity and Output - The weekly start - up rate of the soda ash industry is 85.04% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash is 807,000 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 432,300 tons, and the output is at a historical high [20] 7. Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity Changes - 2023: The total new production capacity is 6.4 million tons, including Anhui Hongsifang (200,000 tons), Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (400,000 tons in the first - phase 1, 2, 3 lines and 1 million tons), Henan Lingshan (2 million tons in the fifth - phase), and Chongqing Xiangyu (200,000 tons) [21] - 2024: The total new production capacity is 1.8 million tons, including Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (1 million tons in the first - phase 4 line), Henan Jinshan (500,000 tons in the sixth - phase), and Henan Zhongda (300,000 tons) [21] - 2025: The planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons, including Jiangsu Lianyungang Debang (600,000 tons), Lianyungang Alkali (1.1 million tons), Hubei Shuanghuan Phase II (400,000 tons), Hubei Xindu (600,000 tons), Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (2.8 million tons in the second - phase), and Henan Jinshan (2 million tons in the seventh - phase) [21] 8. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Soda Ash Sales Rate: The weekly sales rate of soda ash is 61.12% [24] - Downstream Demand of Soda Ash: - Float Glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,500 tons, and the start - up rate is 70.81% [27] - Photovoltaic Glass: Not provided in detail, but there is a situation of production reduction and weakening demand for soda ash [5] 9. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 1.9472 million tons, an increase of 2.79% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [32] 10. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Start - up Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3067 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [33]