大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260310

Report Overview - Report Date: March 10, 2026 - Report Type: Morning Report on Shanghai Nickel & Stainless Steel - Author: Zhu Senlin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Shanghai Nickel - The external market rebounded after a decline, with prices fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. Supply increased in March production scheduling, and domestic inventories continued to accumulate, indicating sufficient market supply. There was a strong bullish sentiment in the nickel ore market, and the RKAB policy change in Indonesia led to a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish domestic transactions due to cost inversion. Nickel - iron prices continued to rebound with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly, but the decline was small compared to the previous increase, suggesting weak demand. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, but there was a significant month - on - month decline during the off - season. Overall, the outlook is bearish [2]. - The basis is 2380 (spot price 138,900), which is bullish [2]. - LME inventory is 287,418 (-132), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 53,897 (+329), which is bearish [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The main positions are net long, and the long positions increased, which is bullish [2]. - Conclusion: Shanghai Nickel 2605 will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, nickel - iron prices rebounded, and the cost line provided strong support. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly, but demand was weak. The outlook is neutral [4]. - The basis is 1007.5 (average stainless steel price 15,112.5), which is bullish [4]. - The futures warehouse receipts are 51,893 (-60), which is neutral [4]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is neutral [4]. - Conclusion: Stainless Steel 2604 will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview | Futures | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 136,520 | 137,140 | -620 | | LME Nickel | 17,430 | 17,450 | -20 | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 14,105 | 14,210 | -105 | | Spot | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel | 138,900 | 140,500 | -1,600 | | 1 Jinchuan Nickel | 142,550 | 143,950 | -1,400 | | 1 Imported Nickel | 135,250 | 137,000 | -1,750 | | Nickel Beans | 137,750 | 139,650 | -1,900 | | Cold Rolled Index | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nickel Index | 137,250 | 136,850 | 400 | | Cold Rolled Index | 13,750 | 13,801 | -51 | | Cold Rolled 304*2B | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Wuxi | 15,100 | 15,100 | 0 | | Foshan | 15,100 | 15,100 | 0 | | Hangzhou | 15,100 | 15,100 | 0 | | Shanghai | 15,150 | 15,150 | 0 | [9] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 61,769 tons, with futures inventory at 53,568 tons, an increase of 978 tons and 437 tons respectively [12]. | Futures Inventory | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Nickel | 287,418 | 287,550 | -132 | | Shanghai Nickel (Warehouse Receipts) | 53,897 | 53,568 | 329 | | Total Inventory | 341,315 | 341,118 | 197 | [13] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 6, the Wuxi inventory was 618,600 tons, the Foshan inventory was 398,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1,150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,300 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 716,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons [17]. | Futures Inventory | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts | 51,893 | 51,953 | -60 | [18] Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices | Nickel Ore | Grade | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Laterite Nickel Ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 78 | 74 | 4 | USD/wet ton | | Laterite Nickel Ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 32 | 31 | 1 | USD/wet ton | | Freight (Philippines - Lianyungang) | | 12.5 | 10.5 | 2 | USD/ton | | Freight (Philippines - Tianjin Port) | | 13.5 | 11.5 | 2 | USD/ton | | Variety | Grade | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | High - Nickel (Wet Ton) | 8 - 12 | 1,088.71 | 1,086.93 | 1.79 | CNY/nickel point | | Low - Nickel (Wet Ton) | Below 2 | 3,750 | 3,750 | 0 | CNY/ton | [20] Stainless Steel Production Costs | Traditional Cost | Scrap Steel Production Cost | Low - Nickel + Pure Nickel Cost | | --- | --- | --- | | 14,103 | 14,083 | 17,996 | [22] Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price is 136,561 CNY/ton [25]