大越期货尿素早报-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and supply pressure at historical highs. Industrial demand is weak but has recovery expectations, and agricultural demand has entered a phased end. The inventory has increased, and the external price has risen, widening the export price difference. The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factors for urea are that agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season and overseas prices are continuously strengthening. The negative factor is that the daily production is at a historical high. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural gas plants, the daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is still at a historical high. Industrial demand is weak but has recovery expectations, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers rising and that of melamine falling. Agricultural phased demand has temporarily ended, and the comprehensive inventory has increased. The external price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors, widening the export price difference. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1860 (+10) [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 45, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.4%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 128.8 million tons (-6.2), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. With high daily production year - on - year, differentiated industrial demand, and the peak of phased agricultural demand, and inventory accumulation, the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1860 | 10 | 05 Contract | 1905 | 75 | Warehouse Receipt | 2860 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1880 | 0 | Basis | - 45 | - 65 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 128.8 | 0 | | Henan Spot | 1860 | 84 | UR01 | 1883 | 64 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 109.8 | 0 | | FOB China | 3897 | | UR05 | 1905 | 75 | UR Port Inventory | 19.0 | 0 | | | | | UR09 | 1920 | 77 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]