大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260310

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2604 is expected to be in a consolidation phase. The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc moving in a volatile manner, closing with a small positive line. There was an increase in trading volume, and both long and short positions reduced, with long positions decreasing more. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is rising and operating in the weak zone, while the trend indicator is declining, indicating a stalemate between long and short forces [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a supply surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a supply shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons, and from January to November, it was 12.1419 million tons. The overall situation is considered bullish [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 24,390, and the basis is - 30, which is considered neutral [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On March 9, LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 94,800 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 101 tons to 76,349 tons, which is considered bullish [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - On March 9, in the SHFE zinc futures market, different delivery months showed different price fluctuations, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the 2604 contract had an opening price of 24,350, a closing price of 24,420, a trading volume of 161,057 lots, and an open interest of 80,681 lots with a decrease of 4,635 lots [3]. 3.5 Spot Market - On March 9, in the domestic spot market, the price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 24,340 - 24,440, with an average price of 24,390, up 220 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 24,260 - 24,360, with an average price of 24,310, up 210 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 24,350 - 24,450, with an average price of 24,400, up 210 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 24,370 - 24,470, with an average price of 24,420, up 210 yuan/ton [4]. 3.6 Social Inventory - From February 26, 2026, to March 9, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets increased from 180,400 tons to 218,300 tons. Compared with March 2, it increased by 63,000 tons, and compared with March 5, it increased by 47,000 tons [5]. 3.7 Futures Warehouse Receipts - On March 9, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 76,349 tons, a decrease of 101 tons compared to the previous day. The warehouse receipts in Tianjin decreased by 101 tons, while those in other regions remained unchanged [7]. 3.8 LME Inventory Distribution - On March 9, the total LME zinc inventory was 94,800 tons, a decrease of 175 tons compared to the previous day. The inventory in Singapore decreased by 175 tons, while the inventories in other regions remained unchanged [8]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Price - On March 9, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrates in major domestic cities were mostly 20,950 yuan/ton, with some at 20,850 yuan/ton, and the price increases ranged from 70 to 170 yuan/ton [10]. 3.10 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On March 9, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all increased by 210 yuan/ton. For example, the price of 0 zinc ingot from Torch was 24,640 yuan/ton, and that from Huzinc was 25,070 yuan/ton [13]. 3.11 Domestic Refined Zinc Production - In February 2026, the actual production of domestic refined zinc was 470,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The planned production in March is 490,200 tons [15]. 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On March 9, the processing fees of 50% - grade zinc concentrates in most domestic regions were in the range of 1,400 - 1,600 yuan/metal ton, with some regions having price increases. The import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 30 US dollars/thousand tons [17]. 3.13 Futures Trading Ranking - On March 9, in the SHFE zinc futures trading, in terms of trading volume, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest trading volume of 49,071 lots with an increase of 12,563 lots. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) had the highest long position of 8,610 lots with an increase of 282 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest short position of 11,063 lots with a decrease of 672 lots [18].