建信期货棉花日报-20260310

Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: March 10, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton futures rose slightly after a high - level pullback. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 16,632 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang Kashi machine - picked 31 - grade double 29/less than 3% impurity was mostly reported at CF05 + 1100 or above, with a small amount below this price. The higher price in northern Xinjiang was above 1400, and the mainstream lower price was between 1200 - 1400, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7]. - Orders for combed high - count yarns have been performing well recently. Semi - combed varieties in Henan, Shandong and other places also have smooth orders. Market demand is gradually being released, and orders are being placed successively. The overall trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remains stable, manufacturers' shipments have accelerated, sending out pre - holiday orders, and grey fabric prices are mostly stable [7]. - Macroeconomically, due to the Middle East situation, crude oil prices have risen sharply, driving up chemical raw material prices. The price difference between cotton and polyester has quickly narrowed to less than 8,000 yuan/ton, and the raw material substitution advantage has boosted cotton prices. In the international market, the net position of CFTC US cotton funds has rebounded from a low on a week - on - week basis. The weekly signing and shipment have entered the peak period, and the drought index in the main producing areas is relatively high, providing support for the US cotton trend. In the domestic market, the fundamentals have not changed much. New cotton sales are in the second half, and the notarization inspection is basically over. As of mid - February, the domestic commercial cotton inventory level was 5.5037 million tons, which has entered a downward trend with good consumption support, a year - on - year decrease of 177,400 tons. Driven by the commodity market atmosphere, the spot prices of cotton and yarn have risen synchronously, and some quotes are only valid for the day, negotiated on a case - by - case basis. Considering that the current internal - external price difference is still at a high level, the upside potential of the external market is greater than that of the domestic market, and it is still regarded as bullish [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to CFTC, as of the week ending March 3, the long positions of non - commercial funds in US cotton futures were 112,260 (+8,836) contracts, increasing for the second consecutive week. The short positions were 140,357 (+7,963) contracts, turning from a decrease to an increase. The total ICE positions were 328,391 (+7,568) contracts, also turning from a decrease to an increase. The net long ratio was - 8.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 13.6 percentage points [9]. - According to the China Cotton Notarization Inspection Network, as of March 8, 2026, in the 2025 cotton year, a total of 1,099 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and carried out notarization inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative national inspection volume was 7.4921 million tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous day and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 7.3908 million tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland was 62,600 tons [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts including China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, CF1 - 5 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate [17][18][20][27][29]