建信期货豆粕日报-20260310

Group 1: General Information - The report is about the soybean meal industry, dated March 10, 2026 [1][2] - The research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review - The current prices of different soybean meal contracts are as follows: for the 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3052, the opening price, highest price, and closing price were all 3148, with a rise of 96 and a rise rate of 3.15%, and the trading volume was 672939, and the open interest was 50; for the 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2893, the opening price was 2925, the highest price was 3066, the lowest price was 2919, the closing price was 2995, with a rise of 102 and a rise rate of 3.53%, the trading volume was 2567487, the open interest was 1935418, and the change in open interest was -154205; for the 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2839, the opening price was 2852, the highest price was 3009, the lowest price was 2852, the closing price was 2904, with a rise of 65 and a rise rate of 2.29%, the trading volume was 242428, the open interest was 527641, and the change in open interest was -1745 [6] - The US soybean futures contracts in the outer market are running strongly, with the main contract approaching 1220 cents. In South America, Brazil's harvest progress is slightly slow and there are reports of congestion and delays at some ports, which is relatively bullish; in Argentina, the rainfall during the holiday was acceptable, and there was still rainfall in the soybean - producing areas in the past week, so the overall reduction in production may not be large [6] - The focus of the market is in the Middle East. After Israel and the US launched a war against Iran, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the continuation of the war have affected soybean prices through three paths: an increase in fertilizer prices, an increase in shipping costs, and an increase in inflation expectations. Although the South American harvest is expected to be good, due to unexpected macro - events and the difficult - to - falsify easing of Sino - US trade frictions under the expectation of Trump's visit to China, the CBOT soybean may continue to run strongly, and future attention should be paid to when the strait can be unsealed [6] Group 3: Industry News - According to the USDA Annual Outlook Forum, the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, in line with analysts' expectations. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The total demand is expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels, including an increase of 125 million bushels in exports to 1.7 billion bushels and an increase of 85 million bushels in crushing to 2.655 billion bushels. The ending inventory will remain basically flat at 355 million bushels [7] - The chief economist warns that the production cost is expected to remain high, which will continue to squeeze the planting profit margin [8] - US President Trump will visit China from March 31 to April 2, which will be the first face - to - face meeting between the two leaders since their meeting in South Korea last October, when they reached a trade truce agreement [15] - As of the week of February 18, in Argentina, the rainfall in the central and northern agricultural areas significantly improved the moisture conditions of soybean crops. Currently, 75% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, higher than 68% a week ago and 68% in the same period last year; 66% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, higher than 56% a week ago and 70% in the same period last year; the proportion of poor - rated soybeans is 25%, down from 32% a week ago and 32% in the same period last year [15] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate [12][14][17]