建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260310

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: March 10, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current market trading core has shifted from its own fundamentals to the cost and sentiment logic driven by geopolitics, with the weight of fundamental factors decreasing periodically [6]. - The escalating situation in the Strait of Hormuz and high oil prices provide cost - side support for the polyolefin market. The expected reduction in raw material imports and unexpected device maintenance give polyolefin prices upward momentum in the short - term [6]. - Due to frequent geopolitical risks and volatile energy prices, polyolefins will operate at a high level under strong cost support [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, plastics and PP were locked at the daily limit after opening. L2605 closed at 7,944 yuan/ton, up 449 yuan/ton (5.99%), with a trading volume of 498,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 1,367 lots to 410,391 lots. PP2605 closed at 8,034 yuan/ton, up 454 yuan (5.99%), with a decrease in open interest of 13,379 lots to 480,000 lots [6]. 2. Industry News - On March 9, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons (3.05%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 865,000 tons [7]. - PE market prices continued to rise. LLDPE prices in North China were 9,200 - 10,000 yuan/ton, in East China were 9,500 - 10,080 yuan/ton, and in South China were 9,700 - 10,200 yuan/ton [7]. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 9,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Downstream factories were more cautious in purchasing, and the overall market trading volume decreased [7]. - After PP futures opened, they were locked at the daily limit. The spot market was bullish, and downstream purchasing sentiment was boosted due to supply - side reduction expectations. However, due to price fluctuations and the daily limit, some producers raised prices, others suspended sales, and most traders suspended quoting. Downstream buyers were mostly cautious, and the market trading was average [7][8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data graphs, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][13][14]