贵金属日评-20260310

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: March 10, 2026 - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long - term, the unprecedented changes in a century and Sino - US competition will continue to drive the gold price up. In the short - term, the Iran war boosts safe - haven demand but also weakens the Fed's rate - cut expectations and pushes up the US dollar exchange rate. The precious metals sector has high volatility, and the gold price is expected to show a wide - range shock pattern. Investors are advised to take a bullish position while strictly controlling positions. This week, attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation, Sino - US price data, and China's trade data [4] - After the sharp decline at the end of January due to the Fed's suspension of the rate - cut process and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman candidate, the precious metals sector showed a strong sign of stabilizing and rebounding in February. Affected by factors such as the chaotic international trade situation, the gloomy global economic growth outlook, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and rising geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to rise strongly along the upward trend line since September 2025. However, historical experience shows that the precious metals rally driven by geopolitical conflicts is often short - lived, and investors are advised to control positions, maintain a bullish view, long - hedgers can seize the opportunity to establish hedging positions, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce hedging positions [6] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The weak US job market boosts the Fed's rate - cut expectations. However, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz hinders international crude oil trade, and Iran's selection of a hard - line successor as the supreme leader raises concerns about the long - termization of the Iran war. Rising oil prices and inflation may hinder the Fed from cutting rates. On Monday's Asian session, the London gold price once fell to $5014 per ounce [4] Medium - term Market - After the sharp decline in late January, the precious metals sector rebounded in February. On February 20, the US Federal Supreme Court's ruling that the Trump administration had no right to levy tariffs under the IEEPA re - destabilized international trade, pushing the international gold price up to around $5200 per ounce, and Middle - East geopolitical risks increased the safe - haven demand for precious metals [6] Domestic Precious Metals Market Conditions | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Index | 1,143.78 | 1,155.57 | 1,123.86 | 1,143.19 | - 0.05% | 289,469 | 4731 | | SHFE Silver Index | 21,571 | 21,857 | 20,433 | 21,576 | 0.03% | 492,049 | - 5469 | | GZFE Platinum Index | 559.04 | 558.89 | 521.83 | 548.31 | - 1.92% | 26,741 | - 639 | | GZFE Palladium Index | 420.61 | 416.08 | 399.48 | 412.47 | - 1.94% | 9,253 | 26 | [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report includes charts such as Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indexes against Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Iran announced that Mojtaba Khamenei would succeed his father Ali Khamenei as the supreme leader, indicating that the hard - line faction still firmly controls the Tehran regime. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the government would continue military operations [17] - US employment decreased by 92,000 in February unexpectedly, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, which may indicate a deterioration in the labor market. The decline in employment was partially due to strikes in the healthcare industry and winter storms affecting the construction and leisure and hospitality industries [17] - Due to the Iran war, Iraq's oil production in southern major oil fields has dropped by 70%. Qatar's energy minister said that if the Iran conflict continues and pushes the oil price to $150 per barrel, all Gulf energy - producing countries are expected to stop exports within weeks. Kuwait National Petroleum Company also started to cut crude oil production and declared force majeure [17]